Table 2.

Interrupted Time Series Models of Firearm Assault Injuries

	Firearm Assault Injuries
	Rate per 100,000
	AR(1) TSR	AR(1) TSR	RE HLM	RE HLM	RE HLM +Int.
	(1)	(2)	(3)	(4)	(5)
T	0.001	−0.001	0.003	0.002	0.001
	(−0.0003|0.002)	(−0.003|0.001)	(0.0004|0.005)	(−0.0005|0.004)	(−0.002|0.004)
COVID - State of Emergency	−0.463	−0.411	−0.646	−0.506	−0.439
	(−1.026|0.100)	(−0.995|0.173)	(−2.001|0.708)	(−1.864|0.853)	(−1.917|1.040)
COVID - Stay at Home	0.403	0.416	0.242	0.156	0.189
	(−0.179|0.984)	(−0.183|1.016)	(−1.151|1.636)	(−1.240|1.553)	(−1.331|1.709)
Post-Killing	1.781	1.775	1.330	1.277	0.282
	(1.176|2.387)	(1.137|2.414)	(−0.092|2.751)	(−0.149|2.703)	(−1.375|1.938)
T Post-Killing	−0.048	−0.047	−0.035	−0.032	−0.036
	(−0.068|−0.028)	(−0.070|−0.025)	(−0.081|0.011)	(−0.078|0.015)	(−0.086|0.015)
MPD Use of Force t-1		−0.015		−0.130	−0.123
		(−1.400|1.370)		(−0.184|−0.077)	(−0.175|−0.070)
MPD Stops t-1		−0.121		0.035	0.076
		(−0.365|0.122)		(0.019|0.051)	(0.055|0.098)
MPD OIS t-1		−27.382		−1.953	−1.668
		(−67.727|12.964)		(−12.946|9.040)	(−13.095|9.759)
AR(1)	0.142	0.065
	(0.021|0.263)	(−0.071|0.201)
Median HH Income					0.00001
					(−0.00001|0.00002)
Percent Black					0.038
					(0.014|0.062)
Post-Killing X Percent Black					0.063
					(0.032|0.094)
Constant	0.579	0.931	0.800	0.834	−0.412
	(−0.194|1.352)	(−0.204|2.066)	(−1.093|2.694)	(−1.073|2.740)	(−2.785|1.961)
SD(ZCTA)			0.904	0.922	0.504
SD(Residual)			5.352	5.364	5.577
Observations	260	217	5,993	5,928	5,460
R2	0.385	0.407
Log Likelihood			−18,592.500	−18,406.520	−17,172.070
Akaike Inf. Crit.			37,210.990	36,845.050	34,382.150
Bayesian Inf. Crit.			37,298.070	36,952.040	34,507.650
Residual Std. Error	0.463 (df = 248)	0.474 (df = 202)
F Statistic	14.117*** (df = 11; 248)	9.898*** (df = 14; 202)
Models include controls for seasonality.	95% Confidence Intervals in parentheses