Table A1.

Interrupted Time Series Models of the Murder Rate

	Murder Rate
	Rate per 100,000
	AR(1) TSR	AR(1) TSR	RE HLM	RE HLM	RE HLM +Int.
	(1)	(2)	(3)	(4)	(5)
T	0.001	0.001	0.0001	0.0001	0.0001
	(0.0002|0.001)	(−0.0002|0.001)	(0.00002|0.0002)	(−0.00001|0.0002)	(−0.00002|0.0002)
COVID - State of Emergency	−0.025	−0.044	−0.428	−0.332	−0.264
	(−0.255|0.205)	(−0.282|0.194)	(−1.881|1.025)	(−1.785|1.121)	(−1.812|1.283)
COVID - Stay at Home	−0.038	−0.028	−0.262	−0.331	−0.333
	(−0.275|0.199)	(−0.272|0.217)	(−1.756|1.231)	(−1.823|1.162)	(−1.924|1.257)
Post-Killing	0.309	0.283	0.887	0.848	0.809
	(0.078|0.541)	(0.042|0.525)	(−0.639|2.413)	(−0.677|2.373)	(−0.928|2.546)
T Post-Killing	−0.004	−0.004	−0.033	−0.032	−0.040
	(−0.006|−0.002)	(−0.006|−0.002)	(−0.085|0.019)	(−0.084|0.020)	(−0.095|0.016)
MPD Use of Force t-1		0.159		−0.095	−0.036
		(−0.346|0.664)		(−0.150|−0.039)	(−0.088|0.015)
MPD Stops t-1		−0.054		0.020	0.074
		(−0.148|0.039)		(0.003|0.037)	(0.055|0.092)
MPD OIS t-1		5.056		2.313	2.586
		(−11.273|21.38 5)		(−9.418|14.045)	(−9.350|14.521)
AR(1)	−0.107	−0.139
	(−0.220|0.006)	(−0.261|−0.016)
Median HH Income					−0.00000
					(−0.00001|0.00001)
Percent Black					0.0005
					(−0.014|0.015)
Post-Killing X Percent Black					0.015
					(−0.017|0.048)
Constant	−0.028	0.038	0.237	0.306	0.461
	(−0.303|0.247)	(−0.354|0.429)	(−1.845|2.319)	(−1.779|2.392)	(−1.819|2.741)
SD(ZCTA)			0.904	0.922	0.504
SD(Residual)			5.352	5.364	5.577
Observations	312	269	5,929	5,926	5,458
R2	0.297	0.315
Log Likelihood			−18,795.350	−18,783.110	−17,400.650
Akaike Inf. Crit.			37,616.700	37,598.210	34,839.310
Bayesian Inf. Crit.			37,703.640	37,705.210	34,964.800
Residual Std. Error	0.192 (df = 300)	0.197 (df = 254)
F Statistic	11.538*** (df = 11; 300)	8.334*** (df = 14; 254)
Models include controls for seasonality.	95% Confidence Intervals in parentheses