Table A4.
Interrupted Time Series Models of Firearm Assault Injuries
| Firearm Assault Injuries | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rate per 100,000 | |||||
| AR(1) TSR | AR(1) TSR | RE HLM | RE HLM | RE HLM +Int. | |
| (1) | (2) | (3) | (4) | (5) | |
| T | 0.001 | −0.001 | 0.003 | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| (−0.0001|0.002) | (−0.003|0.001) | (0.0004|0.005) | (−0.0004|0.004) | (−0.002|0.004) | |
| COVID - State of Emergency | −0.148 | −0.063 | −0.520 | −0.352 | −0.313 |
| (−0.786|0.490) | (−0.706|0.580) | (−2.114|1.074) | (−1.951|1.246) | (−2.052|1.427) | |
| COVID - Stay at Home | −0.016 | −0.032 | 0.081 | −0.037 | 0.028 |
| (−0.712|0.681) | (−0.732|0.669) | (−1.659|1.821) | (−1.781|1.707) | (−1.869|1.926) | |
| Post-Killing | 2.545 | 2.556 | 1.611 | 1.617 | 0.563 |
| (1.614|3.477) | (1.619|3.493) | (−0.716|3.938) | (−0.715|3.950) | (−2.040|3.166) | |
| 1 Month Post | −0.699 | −0.853 | −0.013 | −0.067 | 0.052 |
| (−1.906|0.509) | (−2.080|0.374) | (−3.029|3.003) | (−3.090|2.956) | (−3.237|3.342) | |
| 2 Months Post | −1.241 | −1.538 | −0.902 | −1.059 | −0.972 |
| (−2.454|−0.028) | (−2.785|−0.292) | (−3.931|2.127) | (−4.096|1.977) | (−4.276|2.331) | |
| 3 Months Post | −2.128 | −2.355 | −1.248 | −1.331 | −1.337 |
| (−3.345|-0.911) | (−3.596|-1.114) | (−4.288|1.791) | (−4.377|1.716) | (−4.652|1.977) | |
| 4 Months Post | −1.871 | −2.021 | −1.176 | −1.145 | −1.156 |
| (−3.085|−0.656) | (−3.252|−0.790) | (−4.210|1.858) | (−4.185|1.896) | (−4.464|2.153) | |
| 5 Months Post | −2.121 | −2.111 | −1.372 | −1.353 | −1.401 |
| (−3.334|−0.907) | (−3.339|−0.884) | (−4.402|1.658) | (−4.390|1.684) | (−4.706|1.903) | |
| 6 Months Post | −1.330 | −1.337 | −0.249 | −0.304 | −0.179 |
| (−2.548|−0.111) | (−2.566|−0.108) | (−3.292|2.794) | (−3.355|2.746) | (−3.498|3.140) | |
| 7+ Months Post | −2.489 | −2.485 | −1.527 | −1.524 | −1.566 |
| (−3.672|−1.307) | (−3.674|−1.295) | (−4.480|1.426) | (−4.484|1.435) | (−4.786|1.654) | |
| MPD Use of Force t-1 | −0.732 | −0.130 | −0.123 | ||
| (−2.145|0.680) | (−0.184|−0.077) | (−0.175|−0.070) | |||
| MPD Stops t-1 | −0.182 | 0.035 | 0.077 | ||
| (−0.415|0.050) | (0.019|0.051) | (0.055|0.098) | |||
| MPD OIS t-1 | −30.131 | −2.053 | −1.773 | ||
| (−68.210|7.948) | (−13.048|8.942) | (−13.202|9.657) | |||
| AR(1) | 0.00001 | ||||
| (−0.00001|0.00002) | |||||
| Median HH Income | 0.038 | ||||
| (0.014|0.062) | |||||
| Percent Black | 0.063 | ||||
| (0.032|0.094) | |||||
| Post-Killing X Percent Black | 0.722 | 1.263 | 0.878 | 0.924 | −0.320 |
| (−0.029|1.474) | (0.178|2.348) | (−1.039|2.794) | (−1.006|2.854) | (−2.715|2.076) | |
| SD(ZCTA) | 0.817 | 0.922 | 0.504 | ||
| SD(Residual) | 5.353 | 5.364 | 5.578 | ||
| Observations | 261 | 217 | 5,993 | 5,928 | 5,460 |
| R2 | 0.436 | 0.485 | |||
| Log Likelihood | −18,582.870 | −18,396.930 | −17,161.870 | ||
| Akaike Inf. Crit. | 37,203.730 | 36,837.860 | 34,373.740 | ||
| Bayesian Inf. Crit. | 37,331.000 | 36,984.990 | 34,538.870 | ||
| Residual Std. Error | 0.447 (df = 244) | 0.448 (df = 197) | |||
| F Statistic | 11.808*** (df = 16; 244) | 9.761*** (df = 19; 197) | |||
| Models include controls for seasonality. | 95% Confidence Intervals in parentheses | ||||