Table 2.
Disease burden preventable by four childhood non-National Immunization Program vaccines in China
| Disease and vaccine |
Disease burden with status quo scenario (95% CI)* |
Disease burden with the National Immunization Program scenario (95% CI)† |
Difference (95% CI) |
Reduction in deaths in children younger than 5 years in 2019 (%) |
|||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Inpatient cases (n=617 199) | Deaths (n=16 004) | Inpatient cases (n=171 478) | Deaths (n=4243) | Inpatient cases (n=445 721) | Deaths (n=11 761) | Including newborn deaths | Excluding newborn deaths | ||
| Lai et al (2022)26 | Pneumococcal disease (PCV13)‡ | 185 879 (154 784–224 713) | 7234 (4919–8307) | 62 527 (52 071–75 587) | 2427 (1651–2787) | 123 352 (102 712–149 126) | 4807 (3269–5520) | 4·21% | 7·63% |
| Wang et al (2022)27 | Gastroenteritis (pentavalent rotavirus vaccine)§ | 366 661 (280 301–471 533) | 5855 (4476–7530) | 100 453 (76 793–129 184) | 1604 (1226–2063) | 266 208 (203 508–342 349) | 4251 (3250–5467) | 3·72% | 6·75% |
| Zhang et al (2021);25 Lai et al (2022)31 | Hib disease (Hib vaccine)¶ | 50 682 (48 630–52 732) | 2915 (2737–3094) | 3963 (3803–4123) | 212 (199–225) | 46 719 (44 827–48 609) | 2703 (2538–2869) | 2·37% | 4·29% |
| Feng et al (2023)28 | Varicella disease (varicella vaccine)‖ | 13 977 (13 327–14 627) | 0 | 4535 (2626–6443) | 0 | 9442 (9003–9881) | 0 | 0 | 0 |
PCV13=13-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine. Hib=Haemophilus influenzae serotype b. NPNM=non-pneumonia non-meningitis.
Status quo strategies (ie, non-National Immunization Program vaccines voluntarily used by citizens in the private market but not provided by governments as National Immunization Program vaccines) referred to three doses of PCV13, three doses of Hib vaccine, three doses of lamb rotavirus vaccine, and one dose of varicella vaccine.
Programme strategies referred to three doses of PCV13, three doses of Hib vaccine, three doses of pentavalent rotavirus vaccines, and one dose plus catch-up of varicella vaccine.
Inpatients with pneumococcal disease included inpatient pneumonia, meningitis, and NPNM due to streptococcus pneumoniae. Pneumococcal deaths included deaths of inpatient pneumonia, meningitis, and NPNM due to streptococcus pneumoniae. All PCV13 products available in the market were assumed to have the same effectiveness.
Gastroenteritis deaths included deaths of inpatient gastroenteritis attributed to rotavirus.
Hib inpatient cases included inpatient pneumonia, meningitis, and NPNM due to Hib. Hib deaths included deaths of inpatient pneumonia, meningitis, and NPNM due to Hib. All Hib vaccine products available in the market were assumed to have the same effectiveness. Hib disease burden estimates were derived from data from 2017.
No varicella deaths were assumed. All varicella vaccine products available in the market were assumed to have the same effectiveness.