Table 2:
The optimal cutoff score of the ASPECTS and prognostic value of the ASPECTS for predicting IHM and unfavorable outcome.
| Variable | AuROC (95% CI) | Optimal cut-off | Sensitivity (95% CI) | Specificity (95% CI) | PPV (95% CI) | NPV (95% CI) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IHM | ||||||
| Baseline ASPECTS | 0.823 (0.762, 0.884) | ≤7 | 62.5 (49.5–74.3) | 89.0 (84.7–92.4) | 56.3 (44.0–68.1) | 91.2 (87.2–94.3) |
| 24-h ASPECTS | 0.955 (0.935, 0.975) | ≤4 | 81.3 (69.5–89.9) | 91.8 (88.0–94.7) | 69.3 (57.6–79.5) | 95.6 (92.4–97.7) |
| Change in ASPECTS | 0.920 (0.888, 0.953) | ≥3 | 87.5 (76.8–94.4) | 85.1 (80.3–89.0) | 57.1 (46.7–67.1) | 96.8 (93.7–98.6) |
| Unfavorable outcome at the time of hospital discharge | ||||||
| Baseline ASPECTS | 0.744 (0.693, 0.795) | ≤8 | 45.5 (38.7–52.5) | 90.9 (84.7–95.2) | 89 (81.6–94.2) | 50.8 (44.3–57.4) |
| 24-h ASPECTS | 0.853 (0.814, 0.892) | ≤6 | 51.6 (44.7–58.5) | 94.7 (89.4–97.8) | 94 (88.1–97.6) | 54.8 (48.1–61.4) |
| Change in ASPECTS | 0.800 (0.754, 0.846) | ≥1 | 84.5 (78.9–89.1) | 61.4 (52.5–69.7) | 77.9 (72–83.1) | 71.1 (61.8–79.2) |
ASPECTS: Alberta Stroke Program Early CT Score, AuROC: Area under the receiver operating characteristic curve, CI: Confidence interval, IHM: Inhospital mortality, NPV: Negative predictive value, PPV: Positive predictive value