Table 1.

Effects of a Ten-Percentage-Point Increase in Refundable State EITC (as % of Federal Credit) on Birth Outcomes Born to Single Low-Educated Women Aged 18–46 Years, Natality Files 1989–2018, All County Sample

Outcomes	EITC Effect (95% CI)	Outcome Mean
All birth order
Birth weight (grams)	8.237**	3209.88
	[2.90,13.58]
Low birth weight rate (%)	-0.003**	0.096
	[-0.005, -0.001]
Gestational weeks (week)	0.052**	38.67
	[0.017,0.087]
Preterm birth rate (%)	-0.003	0.14
	[-0.006,0.00008]
Fetal growth rate (grams/week)	0.110*	82.79
	[0.015,0.21]

Note: Each cell represents the effect of a 10%-point increase in refundable state EITCs (relative to federal credits) in tax year t-m on an outcome in birth year t. The EITC is lagged two years prior to birth year (t-2) for birth months during January to April and lagged one year prior to birth year (t-1) for birth months during May to December. Estimates are county level aggregated data analyses. Each outcome and demographic characteristics are the average value for each county per year (one observation for each county per year). The model includes one EITC variable, the refundable percentage of federal credit (states with no EITC and states with non-refundable ETIC have 0 on this variable as the control group). The demographic controls include indicators for maternal age, child sex, race/ethnicity, education, and county and year fixed effects. State level controls include average minimum wage (2018$) from the past 12 months, average state cigarette tax from the past 12 months, and average maximum Medicaid income eligibility for pregnant women as % of FPL from the past 12 months. The sample size is 240,346. The regressions are weighted using the count of outcomes at the county level. Standard errors (SE) are clustered at state level and shown in paratheses. ^*p < 0.05, ^**p < 0.01