Table 3.

Effects of a Ten-Percentage-Point Increase in Refundable State EITC (as % of Federal Credit) on Birth Outcomes Born to Single Low-Educated Women Aged 18–46 Years, Natality Files 1989–2018, Contiguous County Sample

Outcomes	EITC Effect (95% CI)	Outcome Mean
All birth order
Birth weight (grams)	0.76	3198.72
	[-5.90,7.42]
Low birth weight rate (%)	-0.001	0.10
	[-0.004,0.002]
Gestational weeks (week)	0.010	38.70
	[-0.022,0.041]
Preterm birth rate (%)	-0.001	0.14
	[-0.004,0.003]
Fetal growth rate (grams/week)	-0.003	82.42
	[-0.13,0.13]

Note: Each cell represents the effect of a 10%-point increase in refundable state EITCs (relative to federal credits) in tax year t-m on an outcome in birth year t in counties located in states with refundable EITC programs, compared to the border counties within each county-pair. The EITC measure, each outcome and demographic characteristics and state level control variables are the average value for each county per year. Each county may have multiple observations per year since a single county may have multiple contiguous county pairs. The model includes one EITC variable, the refundable percentage of federal credit (states with no EITC and states with non-refundable ETIC have 0 on this variable as the control group). The demographic controls include indicators for maternal age, child sex, race/ethnicity, education, and county-pair by year fixed effects. State level controls include average minimum wage (2018$) from the past 12 months, average state cigarette tax from the past 12 months, and average maximum Medicaid income eligibility for pregnant women as % of FPL from the past 12 months. The regressions include county fixed effects and county-pair by year fixed effects, and are weighted using the count of each outcome at the county level. The sample size is 2.3076. Standard errors (SE) are clustered at state level and shown in paratheses. ^*p < 0.05, ^**p < 0.01