Table 2.
Cold and heat effects and attributable risks on all-cause and cause-specific mortality and emergency ambulance dispatch for overall population for the 47 prefectures between 2015 and 2019 in Japan.
| Outcome | MMTP [% (95% CI)] | MMT [°C (95% CI)] | Total AN [n (95% CI)] | Total AF [% (95% CI)] | Cold | Heat | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RR (95% CI) | AN (95% CI) | AF (95% CI) | RR (95% CI) | AN (95% CI) | AF (95% CI) | |||||
| All-cause | ||||||||||
| Mortality | 82 (81, 83) | 24.8 (24.5, 25.1) | 793,272 (718,319; 850,893) | 11.88 (10.75, 12.82) | 1.45 (1.39, 1.52) | 759,804 (693,623; 820,641) | 11.38 (10.25, 12.25) | 1.04 (1.02, 1.06) | 33,467 (28,952; 37,513) | 0.50 (0.44, 0.56) |
| EAD | 78 (77, 79) | 23.7 (23.5, 24.0) | 2,323,649 (2,069,136; 2,522,009) | 8.22 (7.28, 8.97) | 1.33 (1.26, 1.40) | 1,611,644 (1,370,990; 1,806,576) | 5.70 (4.84, 6.47) | 1.30 (1.28, 1.33) | 712,004 (626,600; 793,233) | 2.52 (2.19, 2.82) |
| Circulatory | ||||||||||
| Mortality | 83 (82, 85) | 25.1 (24.8, 25.7) | 327,074 (298,404; 349,252) | 18.89 (17.33, 20.10) | 1.80 (1.66, 1.94) | 315,969 (290,103; 336,342) | 18.24 (16.74, 19.52) | 1.10 (1.05, 1.14) | 11,105 (9,796; 12,143) | 0.64 (0.57, 0.70) |
| EAD | 85 (82, 90) | 25.7 (24.8, 27.4) | 305,150 (259,625; 337,739) | 12.89 (11.09, 14.37) | 1.38 (1.28, 1.49) | 295,134 (254,623; 328,392) | 12.47 (10.56, 13.93) | 1.07 (1.03, 1.11) | 10,016 (8,194; 11,626) | 0.42 (0.34, 0.49) |
| Respiratory | ||||||||||
| Mortality | 83 (81, 99) | 25.1 (24.5, 30.6) | 133,330 (115,313; 147,172) | 13.46 (11.60, 14.98) | 1.36 (1.24, 1.50) | 130,643 (111,784; 143,044) | 13.19 (11.34, 14.63) | 1.01 (0.97, 1.06) | 2,687 (1,987; 3,329) | 0.27 (0.20, 0.33) |
| EAD | 85 (83, 87) | 25.7 (25.1, 26.3) | 286,952 (264,137; 302,820) | 20.12 (18.44, 21.28) | 1.69 (1.50, 1.90) | 273,354 (251,783; 289,477) | 19.17 (17.53, 20.28) | 1.19 (1.13, 1.25) | 13,598 (11,769; 15,157) | 0.95 (0.82, 1.06) |
Note: The total number for mortality is 6,676,551 (all-cause), 1,731,910 (circulatory), and 990,745 (respiratory), and the total number for EAD is 28,254,980 (all-cause), 2,367,433 (circulatory), and 1,425,928 (respiratory). Attributable mortality and morbidity computed as total and as separate components for cold and heat. RR is defined as the risk increment at cold and heat (the 1st and 99th percentiles of the temperature distribution, corresponding to and 30.6°C at the country level respectively) relative to MMTP. AF, attributable fraction; AN, attributable number; CI, confidence interval; EAD, emergency ambulance dispatch; MMT(P), minimum mortality/morbidity temperature (percentile); RR, relative risk.