Table A.10:

Correlation of County-Level Severity of Recession Shocks

	Log earnings per capita change, 1973–75	Log earnings per capita change, 1979–82	Log earnings per capita change, 1989–91	Log earnings per capita change, 2000–02	Log earnings per capita change, 2007–10	Predicted log employment change, 1979–82
	(1)	(2)	(3)	(4)	(5)	(6)
Panel A: Raw correlations
Log earnings per capita change, 1973–75	1.000
Log earnings per capita change, 1979–82	0.037	1.000
Log earnings per capita change, 1989–91	−0.023	0.032	1.000
Log earnings per capita change, 2000–02	0.132	0.034	−0.010	1.000
Log earnings per capita change, 2007–10	−0.171	0.054	0.107	−0.104	1.000
Predicted log employment change, 1979–82	−0.002	0.267	0.190	0.141	0.021	1.000
Panel B: Conditional on state fixed effects
Log earnings per capita change, 1973–75	1.000
Log earnings per capita change, 1979–82	0.072	1.000
Log earnings per capita change, 1989–91	0.026	0.003	1.000
Log earnings per capita change, 2000–02	0.077	−0.011	0.004	1.000
Log earnings per capita change, 2007–10	−0.072	−0.007	0.013	−0.090	1.000
Predicted log employment change, 1979–82	−0.099	0.125	0.080	0.024	0.040	1.000
Panel C: Conditional on state fixed effects, low mining counties
Log earnings per capita change, 1973–75	1.000
Log earnings per capita change, 1979–82	0.070	1.000
Log earnings per capita change, 1989–91	0.050	−0.002	1.000
Log earnings per capita change, 2000–02	0.096	0.046	0.034	1.000
Log earnings per capita change, 2007–10	−0.133	−0.028	0.027	−0.130	1.000
Predicted log employment change, 1979–82	0.011	0.164	0.076	0.008	0.055	1.000

Notes: Table reports unweighted correlations. In panels A and B, the sample contains 3,076 counties in the continental U.S. In Panel C, sample contains 2,550 counties with less than 5 percent of 1976 employment in the mining sector.

Sources: BEA Regional Economic Accounts, County Business Patterns