Table A.16:
The Effects of the 1980–1982 Recession on Local Government Expenditures
| Dependent variable: Log expenditure | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| General direct expenditures | By purpose | By type | ||||||
| Education | Public safety | Welfare and health | Infra-structure | Other | Current | Capital | ||
| (1) | (2) | (3) | (4) | (5) | (6) | (7) | (8) | |
| Interaction between 1979–1982 decrease in log real earnings per capita and year | ||||||||
| 1972 | 0.004 (0.393) |
−0.010 (0.781) |
0.091 (0.674) |
−0.334 (1.930) |
−0.742 (0.758) |
−0.084 (0.700) |
0.259 (0.363) |
−1.553 (1.806) |
| 1982 | −0.090 (0.317) |
0.086 (0.327) |
0.411 (0.474) |
−0.844 (1.838) |
0.317 (0.769) |
−0.077 (0.651) |
−0.073 (0.259) |
−0.316 (1.672) |
| 1987 | −0.316 (0.307) |
0.245 (0.363) |
−0.590 (0.617) |
0.378 (1.767) |
−1.329 (1.036) |
−0.090 (0.708) |
−0.267 (0.278) |
−1.290 (1.819) |
| 1992 | −1.244 (0.317) |
−0.136 (0.311) |
−0.952 (0.708) |
−6.458 (2.887) |
−1.019 (1.073) |
−1.238 (0.688) |
−1.101 (0.334) |
−2.391 (1.499) |
| 1997 | −1.088 (0.373) |
−0.351 (0.387) |
−0.412 (0.537) |
−3.088 (2.147) |
−1.761 (1.094) |
−1.899 (0.801) |
−0.912 (0.306) |
−1.815 (1.532) |
| Observations | 15,270 | 15,270 | 15,270 | 15,270 | 15,270 | 15,270 | 15,270 | 15,270 |
| Real per capita mean, 1977 | 2,444 | 1,287 | 137 | 293 | 328 | 400 | 2,109 | 335 |
| Share of total, 1977 | 1.000 | 0.527 | 0.056 | 0.120 | 0.134 | 0.164 | 0.863 | 0.137 |
Notes: The interaction between the 1979–1982 decrease in log real earnings per capita and year 1977 is normalized to equal 0. Regressions are estimated by 2SLS, using the predicted log employment change from 1979–1982 as an IV. Regressions include log population, the share of the population age 0–4, 5–19, and 20–64, fixed effects for county and state-by-year, plus year interacted with the 1950–1960, 1960–1970, and 1970–1980 change in log real median family income and log population, and the 1960 level of log population, log population density, percent urban, percent black, percent foreign, percent with a high school degree, and percent of families with income below $3,000. I transform dependent variables using the inverse hyperbolic sine instead of the log because a small number of observations equal zero. Sample limited to counties with no more than 5 percent of 1976 employment in the mining sector, and sample excludes 5 counties in New York City. Standard errors in parentheses are clustered by state.
Sources: Census of Governments, BEA Regional Economic Accounts, Census County Business Patterns, Census County Data Books, Minnesota Population Center (2011)