Table 4:
The Long-Run Effects of the 1980–1982 Recession on Income and Wages, Examining the Role of Education and Commuting Zone of Residence
| Relative Effect | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Estimated effect on dependent variable | Implied by effects on education | Estimated effect on mean in CZ of residence | Education | CZ of residence | |
| (1) | (2) | (3) | (4) | (5) | |
| Interaction between 1979–1982 decrease in log real earnings per capita and age in 1979 | |||||
| Panel A. Dependent variable: Log personal income | |||||
| 0–10 | −0.447 (0.158) |
−0.317 (0.164) |
−0.254 (0.084) |
0.710 | 0.568 |
| 11–19 | −0.295 (0.120) |
−0.153 (0.115) |
−0.149 (0.053) |
0.520 | 0.504 |
| Panel B. Dependent variable: Log hourly wage | |||||
| 0–10 | −0.303 (0.125) |
−0.259 (0.124) |
−0.204 (0.073) |
0.853 | 0.672 |
| 11–19 | −0.326 (0.105) |
−0.138 (0.084) |
−0.145 (0.047) |
0.424 | 0.444 |
| Panel C. Dependent variable: Log family income | |||||
| 0–10 | −0.419 (0.173) |
−0.289 (0.150) |
−0.250 (0.085) |
0.689 | 0.596 |
| 11–19 | −0.332 (0.118) |
−0.136 (0.106) |
−0.157 (0.052) |
0.411 | 0.472 |
Notes: Column 1 reports the estimated effect on the dependent variable from Table 3. Column 2 reports the implied effect based on the estimates in Table 2 (columns 1, 2, 4, and 5) and OLS regressions of income and wages on these measures of education plus indicators for gender-by-age, race, and year. In column 3, the dependent variable is mean log income or wage of all workers age 25–64 who live in individuals’ CZ of residence. Column 4 equals the ratio of column 2 to column 1, and column 5 equals the ratio of column 3 to column 1.
Sources: BEA Regional Economic Accounts, Census County Business Patterns, Confidential 2000–2013 Census/ACS data linked to the SSA NUMIDENT file, Publicly available 2000–2013 Census/ACS data from Ruggles et al. (2015)