Table 5:

The Long-Run Effects of the 1980–1982 Recession on Four-Year College Degree Attainment, Potentially Mitigating Policies

Policy:	State transfer generosity		State higher education funding		State transfer progressivity
	Less generous	More generous	Less generous	More generous	Less progressive	More progressive
	(1)	(2)	(3)	(4)	(5)	(6)
Interaction between 1979–1982 decrease in log real earnings per capita and age in 1979
0–10	−0.382 (0.174)	−0.536 (0.283)	−0.678 (0.280)	−0.312 (0.177)	−0.360 (0.207)	−0.541 (0.231)
11–19	−0.185 (0.098)	−0.366 (0.175)	−0.335 (0.173)	−0.244 (0.121)	−0.161 (0.166)	−0.372 (0.132)
p-value, equal effects	0.516		0.204		0.529

Notes: See notes to Table 2. Each column reports the results of a separate 2SLS regression. The p-value is for the null hypothesis that the effects of the recession are equal across columns. States with less generous transfers are those with below-median log transfers per capita in 1970, conditional on log median family income in 1969 and the share of the 1970 population that is black, female, foreign born, urban, a high school graduate, a college graduate, and age 5–19, 20–64, and 65 and above. States with less generous higher education funding are those with below-median log higher education appropriations per capita in 1970, conditional on the same demographic and economic covariates. States with less progressive transfers are those with an above-median slope coefficient from a county-level regression of log transfers per capita on log median family income in 1970 and the same demographic and economic covariates.

Sources: BEA Regional Economic Accounts, Census County Business Patterns, Confidential 2000–2013 Census/ACS data linked to the SSA NUMIDENT file, Census County Data Book, Grapevine Appropriations Data