Table 6:

Back of the Envelope Calculations of the Aggregate Long-Run Effects of the 1980–1982 Recession

		Counterfactual 1: No real earnings per capita growth, 1979–1982			Counterfactual 2: Trend real earnings per capita growth, 1979–1982
	Number of births, millions	Four-year college graduates	Earned income, billions $	Adults living in poverty	Four-year college graduates	Earned income, billions $	Adults living in poverty
	(1)	(2)	(3)	(4)	(5)	(6)	(7)
Age in 1979
0–10	36.0	−844,000	−38.2	284,000	−1,779,000	−80.6	598,000
11–19	34.1	−489,000	−27.6	120,000	−1,029,000	−58.1	252,000
0–19	70.2	−1,333,000	−65.8	403,000	−2,808,000	−138.6	850,000

Notes: Table displays back of the envelope calculations of the aggregate long-run effects of the 1980–1982 recession. For individuals who were a years old in 1979, I calculate these as ${\sum }_c{N}_{a,c}\left(R_c^{79-82}-R_c^{CF}\right){\widehat{\pi }}_a^{*}$, where N_a,c is the number of births of individuals residing in county c net of infant mortality, $R_c^{79-82}$ is the observed decrease in log real earnings per capita from 1979–1982 in county c, $R_c^{CF}$ is the counterfactual decrease in log real earnings per capita, and ${\widehat{\pi }}_a^{*}$ is the difference-in-differences estimate after adjusting for measurement error. In counterfactual 1, I set $R_c^{CF}=0$ and in counterfactual 2, $R_c^{CF}=-0.055$, which corresponds to the average annual growth in earnings per capita from 1969–1979 of 1.84 percent. Column 1 reports the total number of births for each age group, net of infant mortality (Σ_c N_a,c). Columns 2 and 5 use difference-in-differences estimates from column 4 of Table 2. Columns 3 and 6 use estimates from column 2 of Table 3. Columns 4 and 7 use estimates from column 5 of Table 3. Numbers are rounded.

Sources: BEA Regional Economic Accounts, Census County Business Patterns, Confidential 2000–2013 Census/ACS data linked to the SSA NUMIDENT file, Birth and infant mortality data from Bailey et al. (2018)