Table A.3:

First Stage Estimates

	Decrease in log real earnings per capita, 1979–1982	Decrease in log real earnings per capita, 1979–1982, by age 0–10 in 1979	Decrease in log real earnings per capita, 1979–1982, by age 11–19 in 1979
	(1)	(2)	(3)
Predicted log employment decrease, 1979–1982	0.455 (0.059)
Interaction between predicted log employment decrease, 1979–1982, and age in 1979
0–10		0.477 (0.055)	−0.014 (0.006)
11–19		−0.001 (0.003)	0.449 (0.059)
F-statistic	60.20	43.09	53.66

Notes: Table reports first stage estimates of the 2SLS system. The predicted log employment change from 1979–1982 is constructed using a county’s 1976 industrial structure and the industry-level log employment change from 1979–1982 in other states within the same region, as defined in equation (2). See notes to Table 2 for details on additional covariates and sample.

Sources: BEA Regional Economic Accounts, Census County Business Patterns, Confidential 2000–2013 Census/ACS data linked to the SSA NUMIDENT file