Table 1. Median and mean absolute error across models, countries and forecast lags.

Models with the lowest error for each country / lag combination are bolded for clarity.

	Models
	Median Absolute Error					Mean Absolute Error
Location	Naive	Piantham	MLR	FGA	GARW	Naive	Piantham	MLR	FGA	GARW
−30 Lead from date of estimation
Australia	0.8%	0.2%	0.2%	0.2%	0.2%	2.1%	0.6%	0.6%	0.6%	1.8%
Brazil	3.5%	0.8%	0.7%	0.8%	0.6%	7.6%	2.5%	2.4%	4.6%	3.3%
Japan	0.4%	0.2%	0.2%	0.2%	0.2%	2.9%	1.4%	1.4%	1.9%	1.4%
South Africa	3.7%	1.0%	0.9%	0.8%	0.8%	5.5%	2.3%	2.5%	2.2%	2.2%
Trinidad and Tobago	12.5%	1.5%	1.4%	1.4%	1.4%	19.9%	4.2%	4.2%	4.2%	4.2%
USA	0.2%	0.1%	0.1%	0.1%	0.1%	1.3%	0.4%	0.4%	1.8%	0.2%
United Kingdom	0.2%	0.1%	0.1%	0.1%	0.1%	1.5%	0.4%	0.4%	0.5%	1.2%
Vietnam	10.4%	1.5%	1.3%	1.4%	1.4%	21.0%	4.0%	4.0%	7.8%	6.2%
0 Lead from date of estimation
Australia	1.8%	0.8%	0.6%	0.6%	0.7%	6.1%	3.2%	2.8%	2.7%	3.8%
Brazil	7.2%	1.1%	1.0%	0.9%	1.0%	18.3%	7.9%	5.9%	6.1%	6.8%
Japan	4.5%	0.5%	0.3%	0.5%	0.4%	10.1%	3.4%	2.1%	3.7%	2.9%
South Africa	9.3%	1.5%	1.6%	1.5%	1.3%	13.2%	4.3%	4.3%	4.0%	4.3%
Trinidad and Tobago	12.5%	1.9%	2.0%	1.7%	1.6%	27.5%	7.4%	7.3%	8.3%	9.5%
USA	0.6%	0.4%	0.4%	0.4%	0.4%	5.1%	2.3%	2.3%	3.0%	1.8%
United Kingdom	1.1%	0.5%	0.5%	0.4%	0.2%	5.7%	2.3%	2.2%	3.7%	2.4%
Vietnam	22.3%	1.5%	1.4%	1.2%	1.7%	25.6%	8.7%	8.6%	9.9%	10.3%
30 Lead from date of estimation
Australia	6.2%	1.6%	1.5%	1.5%	1.4%	15.9%	6.8%	6.2%	6.4%	7.1%
Brazil	13.4%	0.9%	1.2%	1.0%	1.2%	26.8%	8.9%	9.6%	8.4%	9.7%
Japan	7.5%	0.5%	0.5%	0.5%	0.5%	17.5%	11.4%	7.3%	8.8%	5.8%
South Africa	15.8%	1.5%	1.6%	1.6%	1.4%	21.4%	6.9%	7.0%	6.4%	6.5%
Trinidad and Tobago	23.5%	2.0%	1.9%	1.6%	1.3%	38.6%	11.3%	12.0%	14.0%	16.1%
USA	2.0%	0.6%	0.7%	0.6%	0.6%	13.1%	6.3%	6.3%	5.8%	6.1%
United Kingdom	3.6%	0.8%	0.7%	0.6%	0.6%	13.9%	6.6%	5.8%	7.4%	5.8%
Vietnam	32.1%	1.6%	1.1%	0.8%	1.1%	33.2%	11.0%	11.6%	11.3%	13.3%