Table 3.
Absolute and relative change in sugar in drinks and confectionery (g) purchased per household (95% CI) per week in relation to the UK soft drinks industry levy, March 2014 to March 2019 (weighted)
| Analysis 1: preannouncement and postannouncement (March 2014–March 2018) | Analysis 2: pre-implementation and post implementation (March 2016–March 2019) | Analysis 3: preannouncement, postannouncement and pre-implementation, post implementation (March 2014–March 2019) | ||||
| Absolute change (g) | Relative change (%) | Absolute change (g) | Relative change (%) | Absolute change (g) | Relative change (%) | |
| All drinks | ||||||
| Levy liable drinks (sugar/100 mL) | ||||||
| High tier (≥8 g) | 5.5 (3.8 to 7.2) | 10.8 (7.4 to 14.1) | −21.2 (−23.8 to –18.5) | −49.3 (−55.4 to –43.1) | −16.2 (−18.8 to–13.5) | −42.6 (−49.6 to –35.6) |
| Low tier (≥5 g to <8 g)* | −4.3 (−6.1 to –2.6) | −37.5 (−52.5 to –22.5) | −5.0 (−7.4 to –2.6) | −75.8 (−112.7 to –38.9) | −11.5 (−13.9 to –9.1) | −87.8 (−106.4 to –69.2) |
| No levy (<5 g)† | 5.7 (3.9 to 7.4) | 72.6 (50.3 to 94.9) | 9.7 (7.3 to12.1) | 56.0 (41.9 to 70.0) | 19.2 (16.7 to 21.6) | 242.8 (211.9 to 273.7) |
| >0 g to <5 g | 5.7 (3.9 to 7.4) | 72.6 (50.3 to 94.9) | 9.7 (7.3 to12.1) | 56.0 (41.9 to 70.0) | 19.2 (16.7 to 21.6) | 242.8 (211.9 to 273.7) |
| Levy exempt drinks | ||||||
| Milk and milk based drinks‡ | −3.9 (−6.5 to –1.3) | −2.2 (−3.6 to –0.7) | 4.1 (0.5 to 7.7) | 2.4 (0.3 to 4.6) | −3.1 (−6.7 to 0.5) | −1.8 (−3.8 to 0.3) |
| No added sugar fruit juices | 2.6 (0.3 to 4.8) | 5.7 (0.7 to 10.7) | −1.7 (−4.8 to 1.5) | −3.5 (−10.0 to 3.0) | 2.6 (−0.5 to 5.7) | 5.9 (−1.2 to 13.1) |
| Drinks sold as powders | 0.3 (−1.6 to 2.2) | 1.6 (−7.5 to 10.6) | −0.04 (−2.7 to 2.6) | −0.2 (−13.9 to 13.5) | 1.1 (−1.6 to 3.7) | 5.7 (−8.8 to 20.2) |
| Other categories | ||||||
| Confectionery | −6.6 (−32.0 to 18.9) | −2.8 (−13.8 to 8.1) | 22.1 (−12.0 to 56.1) | 11.4 (−6.2 to 29.1) | 18.4 (−15.7 to 52.4) | 9.3 (−8.0 to 26.7) |
| All soft drinks combined (ie, excluding alcohol) | 4.6 (0.5 to 8.6) | 1.4 (0.2 to 2.7) | −12.9 (−18.5 to –7.4) | −4.3 (−6.1 to –2.4) | −8.0 (−13.6 to –2.4) | −2.7 (−4.5 to –0.8) |
Bold indicates significant difference at 95% CI level.
*The counterfactual for low tier drinks crossed 0 mL shortly before the end of the study period thus predicting negative purchases; therefore, the non-counterfactual estimate at the end of the study period was compared with the final week during which the counterfactual was a positive number.
†We do not report change in sugar purchased from drinks with 0 g sugar/100 mL or bottled water as these contain no sugar; the figures for the combined no levy line and the >0 g to <5 g of sugar/100 mL line are the same as the only drinks in the no levy category containing sugar are those with >0 g to <5 g.
‡Milk comprises drinks in the following categories: semi-skimmed; specific low fat % milk (eg, 1% fat milk); whole milk; buttermilk; modified milk; other milk; other non-cows milk; rice drink; soya milk. Skimmed milk is excluded from all analysis in this paper due to missing data.