Table 2:
Estimates of mortality due to stroke, 2020 and 2050, by Global Burden of Disease super-region
| Deaths per 100 000 person-years (95% UI) | Millions of deaths (95% UI) | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | 2050 | 2020 | 2050 | ||
| Southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania | |||||
| Overall | 141·27 (121·11–159·81) | 232·25 (192·44–277·01) | 3·06 (2·62–3·46) | 4·94 (4·09–5·90) | |
| Overall (age-standardised) | 127·68 (108·49–144·44) | 82·54 (68·37–98·42) | ·· | ·· | |
| <60 years* | 16·85 (14·51–19·24) | 12·39 (9·35–15·59) | 0·44 (0·38–0·50) | 0·30 (0·22–0·37) | |
| ≥60 years* | 895·16 (761·93–1014·07) | 568·34 (467·50–677·61) | 2·62 (2·23–2·96) | 4·65 (3·83–5·51) | |
| Central Europe, eastern Europe, and central Asia | |||||
| Overall | 180·57 (162·50–198·46) | 164·32 (140·17–192·41) | 0·75 (0·68–0·83) | 0·66 (0·56–0·77) | |
| Overall (age-standardised) | 119·26 (107·35–131·04) | 62·53 (51·83–75·21) | ·· | ·· | |
| <60 years* | 15·71 (13·89–17·55) | 10·98 (6·89–16·45) | 0·07 (0·07–0·08) | 0·04 (0·03–0·07) | |
| ≥60 years* | 836·25 (751·08–917·84) | 419·53 (357·46–492·06) | 0·68 (0·61–0·75) | 0·61 (0·52–0·71) | |
| High-income | |||||
| Overall | 74·69 (63·41–83·43) | 69·50 (56·73–80·64) | 0·81 (0·69–0·91) | 0·78 (0·64–0·86) | |
| Overall (age-standardised) | 31·49 (27·14–34·92) | 17·21 (14·17–20·20) | ·· | ·· | |
| <60 years* | 3·66 (3·45–3·93) | 2·80 (2·18–3·61) | 0·05 (0·04–0·05) | 0·03 (0·03–0·04) | |
| ≥60 years* | 224·15 (190·90–250·25) | 116·96 (96·01–136·27) | 0·77 (0·64–0·86) | 0·75 (0·61–0·86) | |
| Latin America and Caribbean | |||||
| Overall | 48·58 (43·00–53·88) | 61·80 (46·78–80·77) | 0·29 (0·25–0·32) | 0·42 (0·32–0·55) | |
| Overall (age-standardised) | 49·61 (43·68–54·98) | 29·26 (21·48–39·93) | ·· | ·· | |
| <60 years* | 9·07 (8·07–10·24) | 6·49 (4·08–10·31) | 0·05 (0·05–0·07) | 0·05 (0·03–0·08) | |
| ≥60 years* | 330·39 (285·51–367·33) | 186·95 (140·68–246·18) | 0·23 (0·20–0·26) | 0·37 (0·28–0·48) | |
| North Africa and Middle East | |||||
| Overall | 51·42 (45·70–57·70) | 71·37 (52·93–98·35) | 0·32 (0·28–0·36) | 0·57 (0·43–0·80) | |
| Overall (age-standardised) | 86·57 (77·13–96·40) | 48·23 (36·12–65·80) | ·· | ·· | |
| <60 years* | 12·94 (10·83–15·52) | 9·34 (6·05–14·37) | 0·07 (0·06–0·08) | 0·08 (0·05–0·12) | |
| ≥60 years* | 596·41 (531·95–660·90) | 317·51 (243·27–418·31) | 0·25 (0·22–0·28) | 0·50 (0·38–0·67) | |
| Sub-Saharan Africa | |||||
| Overall | 36·80 (32·30–41·65) | 38·62 (31·51–46·47) | 0·41 (0·36–0·46) | 0·78 (0·64–0·94) | |
| Overall (age-standardised) | 105·19 (92·64–118·00) | 63·06 (52·63–73·21) | ·· | ·· | |
| <60 years* | 17·20 (14·15–20·43) | 11·07 (8·01–15·37) | 0·11 (0·09–0·13) | 0·18 (0·13–0·26) | |
| ≥60 years* | 714·50 (625·28–798·08) | 423·04 (357·14–484·48) | 0·30 (0·26–0·33) | 0·60 (0·50–0·69) | |
| South Asia | |||||
| Overall | 54·30 (46·78–63·19) | 75·24 (56·80–98·17) | 0·99 (0·85–1·15) | 1·56 (1·18–2·04) | |
| Overall (age-standardised) | 78·65 (67·53–91·29) | 46·82 (35·04–61·58) | ·· | ·· | |
| <60 years* | 14·49 (12·34–17·01) | 11·14 (7·30–17·00) | 0·21 (0·18–0·25) | 0·29 (0·19–0·44) | |
| ≥60 years* | 522·96 (447·36–605·91) | 293·92 (222·43–374·88) | 0·78 (0·67–0·90) | 1·27 (0·97–1·62) | |
Data are absolute counts of deaths and rates per 100 000 person-years. 95% UI=95% uncertainty interval.
*
Rates per 100 000 person-years are age-standardised, whereas absolute counts are not.