Table 2.

Posterior probability distribution of the odds ratios for the primary exposure, frailty (CFS ≥ 5), in relation to the primary endpoint, 30-day mortality

		OR (95% CrI)	Probability of Harm (OR > 1)	Probability of MCID (OR > 1.5)	Probability of large effect (1.5xMCID)
	Prior
Model-1	Skeptical	1.62 (1.48–1.76)	> 0.99	0.94	< 0.01
	Optimistic	1.62 (1.49–1.76)	> 0.99	0.95	< 0.01
	Pessimistic	1.62 (1.49–1.77)	> 0.99	0.95	< 0.01
Model-2	Skeptical	1.60 (1.45–1.76)	> 0.99	0.89	< 0.01
	Optimistic	1.60 (1.46–1.75)	> 0.99	0.90	< 0.01
	Pessimistic	1.61 (1.47–1.77)	> 0.99	0.92	< 0.01
Model-3	Skeptical	1.29 (1.16–1.44)	> 0.99	< 0.01	< 0.01
	Optimistic	1.29 (1.16–1.44)	> 0.99	< 0.01	< 0.01
	Pessimistic	1.29 (1.16–1.42)	> 0.99	< 0.01	< 0.01