Table 1.

Description of models fitted in this study

	Model	Author	Description
Leroux-based models	AR1	Rushworth et al. (2014)	Spatially autocorrelated autoregressive of order 1 time series model.
	Adaptive	Rushworth et al. (2017)	Extension of AR1 model. Spatially adaptive smoothing model for localized spatial smoothing.
	ANOVA	Knorr-Held (2000)	The spatiotemporal variation was decomposed into an overall Leroux spatial effect, an overall Leroux temporal trend, and a set of independent space-time interactions.
	Separable	Napier et al. (2016)	Model with an overall temporal trend and separate spatial surfaces for each time period that share a common spatial dependence parameter but have different spatial variances.
BYM-based models	Linear	Bernardinelli et al. (1995)	The spatiotemporal variation was decomposed into an overall BYM spatial effect, an overall linear temporal trend, and an area-specific deviation from the trend.
	AR1	Knorr-Held (2000)	The spatiotemporal variation was decomposed into an overall BYM spatial effect, an overall autoregressive order 1 temporal trend, and a set of independent space-time interactions.