Table 2. Estimated coefficients for intentions to stay in Country of Arrival (a) and to return to Ukraine (b), average marginal effects.
| (a) Do you plan to stay in Country of Arrival (CoA)? | (b) Which statements below may express your considerations about returning to Ukraine? | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stay in CoA | Not stay in CoA | Do not know | I have nothing to return to in Ukraine | I want to return as soon as the war ends | I may return in case the war ends | I may return even if the war continues | I do not have an idea, I do not know | |
| Survey | ||||||||
| Kraków (Poland) | -.20*** | .12*** | .08* | -.01 | .01 | .06* | .07*** | -.13*** |
| Vienna (Austria), ref. | .00 | .00 | .00 | .00 | .00 | .00 | .00 | .00 |
| Gender | ||||||||
| Male, ref. | .00 | .00 | .00 | .00 | .00 | .00 | .00 | .00 |
| Female | -.04 | -.03 | .07 | -.06** | -.07 | .04 | -.02 | .10* |
| Age | ||||||||
| Below 25 | -.01 | .02 | -.02 | -.01 | -.02 | .02 | .09*** | -.09* |
| 25+, ref. | .00 | .00 | .00 | .00 | .00 | .00 | .00 | .00 |
| Residence before leaving Ukraine | ||||||||
| Kyiv, ref. | .00 | .00 | .00 | .00 | .00 | .00 | .00 | .00 |
| Central Ukraine | .06 | -.05 | -.01 | .06** | -.07 | .00 | .00 | .01 |
| Western Ukraine | .06 | -.02 | -.04 | .01 | -.15*** | .04 | .06* | .04 |
| Southern Ukraine | .04 | -.06* | .02 | .02 | -.05 | .00 | -.01 | .04 |
| Eastern Ukraine | .06 | -.06* | .00 | .12*** | -.12*** | .04 | -.04* | .00 |
| Highest level of education | ||||||||
| Secondary general education or less | .07 | -.10*** | .03 | .04 | -.08 | .06 | -.05** | .03 |
| Vocational education | .00 | .00 | .00 | .01 | .01 | .01 | -.03 | .01 |
| Bachelor degree, ref. | .00 | .00 | .00 | .00 | .00 | .00 | .00 | .00 |
| Master degree or PhD | .00 | -.03 | .03 | .03 | .03 | .02 | -.01 | -.08** |
| Skills in dominant language of CoA | ||||||||
| No skills in German/Polish language, ref. | .00 | .00 | .00 | .00 | .00 | .00 | .00 | .00 |
| Skills in German/Polish language | .10** | -.02 | -.08* | -.01 | -.04 | .02 | -.01 | .05 |
| Relationship status | ||||||||
| Cohabiting or married partner is not in Ukraine, ref. | .00 | .00 | .00 | .00 | .00 | .00 | .00 | .00 |
| Cohabiting or married partner is still in Ukraine | -.13*** | .07** | .06 | -.02 | .15*** | -.06 | .05* | -.11*** |
| Other family status: divorced, widowed, single (with or without partner) | .01 | .00 | -.01 | .04 | -.02 | -.05 | .01 | .02 |
| Reasons for choice of CoA | ||||||||
| Unplanned, landed in CoA by chance | -.02 | -.09* | .11* | .04 | -.02 | -.02 | -.01 | .01 |
| Reason “unplanned, …” not reported, ref. | .00 | .00 | .00 | .00 | .00 | .00 | .00 | .00 |
| Family, friends or colleagues in CoA | -.05 | -.02 | .07 | .00 | .03 | -.02 | .03 | -.04 |
| Reason “family or …” not reported, ref. | .00 | .00 | .00 | .00 | .00 | .00 | .00 | .00 |
| Easier to find work in CoA | .28*** | -.23* | -.05 | .04 | -.09 | .04 | -.04 | .05 |
| Reason “easier to …” not reported, ref. | .00 | .00 | .00 | .00 | .00 | .00 | .00 | .00 |
| Other reason reported (geographical proximity, welfare/health system) | -.03 | -.02 | .06 | .01 | .07 | -.09* | .04 | -.02 |
| No other reason reported, ref. | .00 | .00 | .00 | .00 | .00 | .00 | .00 | .00 |
| No reason reported | -.37* | .04 | .34* | .08 | .24 | -.25 | .09 | -.15 |
| At least one reason reported, ref. | .00 | .00 | .00 | .00 | .00 | .00 | .00 | .00 |
| Cragg & Uhler’s R 2 | .19 | .25 | ||||||
| LL Intercept only | -1,523 | -2,250 | ||||||
| LL Full model | -1,387 | -2,047 | ||||||
| LR test | 272*** | 405*** | ||||||
| AIC | 1.95 | 2.93 | ||||||
| BIC | -7,683 | -5,704 | ||||||
| 1,547 | 1,540 | |||||||
Sources: UkrPL and UkrAiA.
Note: Models additionally control for survey mode (paper-and-pencil or web survey), religious denomination, subjective health, employment status before leaving Ukraine and parenthood status. Ref. = reference category.
* p < 0.05
** p < 0.01
*** p < 0.00