Table 3.
Status quo input parameters.
| Parameter | Value | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Cohort size | ||
| Average annual incidence of SBE in Amazonas | 13,229 | 8,10,13 |
| Probabilitiesa | ||
| P (seek formal care) | 0.700 | Expert opinion |
| P (do not seek formal care) | 0.300 | Expert opinion |
| P (seek hospital care | sought formal care) | 0.467 | 10 |
| P (seek CHC care | sought formal care) | 0.533 | 10 |
| P (use traditional home-based therapies | did not seek formal care) | 0.704 | 12 |
| P (self-medicate | did not seek formal care) | 0.296 | 12 |
| P (inpatient | sought hospital care) | 0.930 | 13 |
| P (outpatient | sought hospital care) | 0.070 | 13 |
| P (transfer from CHC to hospital) | 0.327 | 10 |
| P (receive timely antivenom | admitted to hospital) | 0.489 | SINAN |
| P (receive delayed antivenom | admitted to hospital) | 0.192 | SINAN |
| P (receive no antivenom | admitted to hospital) | 0.319 | SINAN |
| P (receive timely antivenom | admitted to CHC) | 0.000b | SINAN |
| P (receive delayed antivenom | admitted to CHC) | 0.000b | SINAN |
| P (receive no antivenom | admitted to CHC) | 1.000 | SINAN |
| P (recovery without complications | no antivenom) | 0.895 | SINAN |
| P (recovery with complications | no antivenom) | 0.076 | SINAN |
| P (death | no antivenom) | 0.029 | SINAN |
| P (recovery without complications | antivenom) | 0.924 | SINAN |
| P (recovery with complications | antivenom) | 0.073 | SINAN |
| P (death | antivenom) | 0.003 | SINAN |
| P (recovery without complications | delayed antivenom) | 0.860 | SINAN |
| P (recovery with complications | delayed antivenom) | 0.128 | SINAN |
| P (death | delayed antivenom) | 0.012 | SINAN |
| Costs (2022 USD) | ||
| Hospital care (inpatient) | $108.54 | 13 |
| Hospital care (outpatient) | $23.92 | 13 |
| CHC care (outpatient) | $9.40 | 13 |
| Ambulance care | $14.52 | 13 |
| Discharge consultation (hospital) | $3.87 | 13 |
| Discharge consultation (CHC) | $3.87 | 13 |
| Antivenom therapy | $281.43 | 13 |
| Transport to hospital | $44.77 | 13,15 |
| Transport to CHC | $28.03 | 13,15 |
| Non-prescription medication | $10.62 | 13 |
| Annual minimum wage | $2614.32 | 16 |
| Disease durations (years) | ||
| For cases that do not receive antivenom | 0.300 | 17 |
| For cases that do receive antivenom | 0.010 | 13 |
| Disability weights | ||
| For cases that do not develop complications | 0.107 | 18 |
| For cases that do develop complications | 0.198 | 18 |
| Life expectancy | ||
| Life expectancy at average age of death | 30.77 | 19,20 |
a
Regarding notation: P(A) means the probability of A. P(A|B) means the probability of A given B.
b
The probability is 0 because CHCs do not store antivenom under current antivenom distribution policies in the Amazonas state.