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. Author manuscript; available in PMC: 2024 Feb 16.
Published in final edited form as: Risk Anal. 2023 Jun 21;44(2):379–389. doi: 10.1111/risa.14159

Table 2.

Characteristics of the high case iterations (ordered by number of cDPV2 cases) for the period of 2022–2026 for

(a) mOPV2
Iteration index Number of cVDPV2 cases Number of affected subpopulations % cases in high R0 blocks* % cases in low RI coverage blocks+ % cases in blocks representing high transmission areas#
23 44,125 197 80 36 54
55 43,054 182 71 49 40
80 41,443 180 75 42 56
5 39,823 173 81 46 56
93 38,616 159 77 43 51
45 38,191 177 75 40 53
87 37,616 124 58 57 16
81 35,092 131 77 43 52
33 34,485 153 87 44 65
57 34,481 124 62 44 46
(b) best nOPV2
Iteration index Number of cVDPV2 cases Number of affected subpopulations % cases in high R0 blocks* % cases in low RI coverage blocks+ % cases in blocks representing high transmission areas#
6 26,209 119 75 32 50
9 25,119 101 95 70 43
100 23,682 103 65 61 35
3 23,222 100 87 52 76
66 17,634 73 76 45 50
5 16,860 74 68 84 0
64 14,947 78 53 67 0
98 14,278 90 26 29 3
94 12,944 52 61 91 4
38 12,585 69 44 64 0
(c) worst nOPV2
Iteration index Number of cVDPV2 cases Number of affected subpopulations % cases in high R0 blocks* % cases in low RI coverage blocks+ % cases in blocks representing high transmission areas#
94 51,270 184 58 46 27
55 50,683 182 67 53 36
6 48,882 179 82 48 52
23 47,918 185 75 39 52
34 46,464 152 60 60 23
66 45,035 160 72 47 48
84 44,178 144 59 54 20
33 43,770 172 76 35 67
100 43,390 132 79 60 43
9 41,759 128 84 55 51

Notes:

*

R0≥10;

+

RI coverage ≤0.3,

#

blocks 47–58, 68–69 indicated in Table 1

Abbreviations: cVDPV2, type 2 circulating vaccine-derived polioviruses; type 2 monovalent OPV; nOPV2, type 2 novel OPV; OPV, oral poliovirus vaccine; R0, basic reproduction number; RI, routine immunization