Fig. 5.

(a) Reconstructed (blue) and instrumental (dotted black) Morava River baseflow for July-September at Strážnice. The dashed line represents the instrumental mean for the calibration period (1921–2018) and the dotted horizontal lines show the 5th and 95th percentile of the full reconstruction (1745–2018). Gray shading indicates the prediction interval (95%), and blue shading indicates the spread of estimates of the different nests. Years of extreme high and low baseflows (Table 3) are highlighted. (b-d) Reconstructed baseflow is plotted in black for three 58-year periods with significant negative trend (blue). Linear fits of JJA temperature (of Dobrovolný et al., 2010 and Brázdil et al., 2022) for the same period are plotted in red. Note that the three periods are not covering the full reconstructed period of (a).