Table 2.
Prediction of all-cause mortality
| Receiver-operator curve analysis | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Area under the curve (95% confidence intervals) | P-value | Sensitivity, % | Specificity, % | Positive predictive value, % | Negative predictive value, % | Accuracy, % | |
| Baseline characteristics | |||||||
| Age | 0.51 (0.44–0.57) | 0.83 | 49 (38–60) | 63 (59–67) | 18 (13–22) | 88 (85–92) | 61 (60–62) |
| Weight | 0.50 (0.42–0.58) | 0.98 | 30 (19–41) | 73 (69–77) | 16 (10–23) | 82 (77–86) | 63 (62–64) |
| Body mass index | 0.51 (0.43–0.57) | 0.80 | 26 (16–36) | 84 (80–89) | 22 (13–31) | 85 (81–90) | 74 (73–75) |
| Bicuspid aortic valve | 0.51 (0.44–0.58) | 0.72 | 38 (29–47) | 59 (51–66) | 25 (16–35) | 64 (58–71) | 61 (52–70) |
| EuroScore II | 0.56 (0.49–0.63) | 0.08 | 47 (36–58) | 36 (32–40) | 11 (8–14) | 80 (75–86) | 37 (36–38) |
| Comorbidities and past medical history | |||||||
| Diabetes | 0.57 (0.49–0.65) | 0.09 | 51 (40–61) | 64 (60–68) | 11 (6–15) | 84 (81–87) | 62 (61–63) |
| Atrial fibrillation | 0.54 (0.47–0.61) | 0.24 | 26 (17–36) | 64 (60–68) | 11 (6–15) | 84 (80–88) | 59 (58–60) |
| History of PCI | 0.53 (0.46–0.61) | 0.37 | 29 (20–38) | 67 (62–73) | 17 (11–23) | 76 (70–83) | 61 (60–62) |
| History of valve surgery | 0.52 (0.45–0.59) | 0.64 | 25 (18–32) | 63 (60–67) | 18 (11–26) | 82 (77–87) | 59 (58–60) |
| History of pacemaker implantation | 0.51 (0.43–0.58) | 0.88 | 17 (9–25) | 76 (72–81) | 16 (9–24) | 77 (73–79) | 67 (66–68) |
| History of a cerebrovascular accident | 0.53 (0.46–0.61) | 0.42 | 20 (15–25) | 79 (72–86) | 24 (19–30) | 84 (80–88) | 64 (63–65) |
| Baseline biomarkers | |||||||
| Creatinine | 0.62 (0.56–0.69) | <0.001 | 72 (62–82) | 56 (51–62) | 22 (17–27) | 92 (89–95) | 58 (57–59) |
| eGFR | 0.61 (0.55–0.68) | 0.001 | 57 (47–68) | 24 (20–27) | 11 (8–14) | 77 (71–84) | 28 (27–29) |
| Haemoglobin | 0.54 (0.48–0.60) | 0.22 | 38 (27–49) | 50 (46–55) | 11 (7–14) | 83 (79–88) | 48 (47–49) |
| Platelets | 0.57 (0.50–0.63) | 0.05 | 63 (53–74) | 53 (48–57) | 19 (14–23) | 89 (86–93) | 54 (53–55) |
| Baseline echocardiography | |||||||
| Left ventricular ejection fraction | 0.56 (0.49–0.62) | 0.11 | 76 (67–85) | 11 (8–13) | 12 (9–15) | 73 (62–83) | 20 (19–21) |
| Effective orifice area | 0.51 (0.43–0.59) | 0.74 | 18 (9–26) | 85 (82–89) | 17 (8–25) | 86 (83–89) | 75 (74–76) |
| Peak transvalvular pressure gradient | 0.53 (0.45–0.61) | 0.40 | 11 (4–18) | 83 (79–86) | 10 (4–16) | 85 (82–88) | 73 (72–74) |
| Mean transvalvular pressure gradient | 0.52 (0.44–0.60) | 0.65 | 10 (3–17) | 83 (80–87) | 9 (3–15) | 85 (82–88) | 73 (72–74) |
| Procedure––valve implantation | |||||||
| Contrast media volume | 0.55 (0.48–0.63) | 0.17 | 64 (54–74) | 42 (38–46) | 15 (11–19) | 88 (84–92) | 45 (44–46) |
| Fluoroscopy time | 0.55 (0.47–0.62) | 0.22 | 48 (37–59) | 63 (59–67) | 17 (12–22) | 88 (85–92) | 61 (60–62) |
| Radiation dose | 0.56 (0.48–0.64) | 0.10 | 24 (18–30) | 86 (83–89) | 22 (16–29) | 78 (72–85) | 72 (71–73) |
| Peri-procedural and in-hospital outcomes | |||||||
| Major vascular complication | 0.55 (0.48–0.62) | 0.13 | 13 (6–20) | 94 (91–98) | 37 (19–54) | 86 (83–90) | 81 (80–82) |
| Minor vascular complication | 0.52 (0.45–0.59) | 0.56 | 23 (17–29) | 79 (73–86) | 28 (24–33) | 75 (70–81) | 71 (70–72) |
| Life threatening bleeding | 0.57 (0.49–0.64) | 0.06 | 16 (8–24) | 93 (92–95) | 54 (34–74) | 87 (85–90) | 80 (79–81) |
| Total RBC concentrate transfused | 0.62 (0.55–0.70) | <0.001 | 23 (14–32) | 94 (92–97) | 52 (36–69) | 88 (85–91) | 81 (78–85) |
| Post-procedural biomarkers | |||||||
| Minimum haemoglobin | 0.56 (0.50–0.61) | 0.16 | 89 (83–95) | 7 (4–9) | 13 (10–16) | 80 (67–92) | 18 (17–19) |
| Minimum platelets | 0.53 (0.44–0.61) | 0.53 | 88 (81–96) | 18 (14–21) | 15 (11–19) | 91 (85–98) | 28 (27–29) |
| Minimum eGFR | 0.67 (0.59–0.74) | <0.001 | 15 (7–24) | 53 (49–58) | 5 (2–7) | 81 (76–86) | 49 (48–50) |
| Post-procedural echocardiography | |||||||
| Left ventricular ejection fraction | 0.64 (0.56–0.72) | 0.01 | 37 (23–52) | 36 (31–41) | 7 (4–10) | 81 (75–88) | 36 (35–37) |
| Peak transvalvular pressure gradient | 0.57 (0.50–0.65) | 0.16 | 27 (17–37) | 82 (78–86) | 19 (11–26) | 86 (83–90) | 72 (71–73) |
| Mean transvalvular pressure gradient | 0.53 (0.44–0.61) | 0.72 | 28 (18–37) | 82 (78–87) | 21 (13–28) | 86 (83–90) | 73 (72–74) |
| Aortic insufficiency ≥ moderate | 0.54 (0.45–0.63) | 0.42 | 32 (29–36) | 61 (58–64) | 16 (12–20) | 63 (59–68) | 51 (50–52) |
| Hospitalization length | 0.62 (0.53–0.71) | 0.014 | 73 (63–83) | 33 (29–37) | 15 (11–18) | 88 (84–93) | 38 (37–39) |
Abbreviations: eGFR, estimated glomerular filtration rate; PCI, percutaneuous coronary intervention; and RBC, red blood cell.