Table 3. Results from the final selected models at the provincial level for study objective 2a,b.
| Province | Model variables | BIC | M-Li | nV | H | C | nObs | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| β | CI low | CI high | p-value | β | CI low | CI high | p-value | ||||||
| BC | H_lag14 | 260.3 | 1 | 0 | 6.44E-02 | 1.41E-02 | 1.15E-01 | 1.21E-02 | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | 51 |
| H_lag7 | 261.9 | 1 | 0 | 5.41E-02 | 1.87E-03 | 1.06E-01 | 4.23E-02 | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | 51 | |
| H | 265.2 | 1 | 0 | 2.34E-02 | -2.73E-02 | 7.40E-02 | 3.66E-01 | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | 51 | |
| AB | H_lag7 + C | 233.8 | 1 | 0 | 2.70E-02 | 1.50E-02 | 3.90E-02 | 1.02E-05 | -4.48 | -8.97 | 1.17E-02 | 5.06E-02 | 50 |
| H | 231.1 | 1 | 0 | 2.60E-02 | 1.42E-02 | 3.78E-02 | 1.58E-05 | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | 50 | |
| H_lag14 | 242.5 | 1 | 0 | 1.45E-02 | 1.26E-03 | 2.77E-02 | 3.18E-02 | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | 50 | |
| SK | H_lag7 + C | 278.7 | 1 | 0 | 2.35E-02 | -7.84E-02 | 1.25E-01 | 6.51E-01 | 2.12 | -3.93 | 8.18 | 4.91E-01 | 50 |
| H + C | 278.8 | 1 | 0 | 1.88E-02 | -7.87E-02 | 1.16E-01 | 7.05E-01 | 2.68 | -3.26 | 8.63 | 3.76E-01 | 50 | |
| H_lag14 + C | 278.9 | 1 | 0 | 1.63E-03 | -1.01E-01 | 1.04E-01 | 9.75E-01 | 2.47E | -3.49 | 8.43 | 4.16E-01 | 50 | |
| MB | H_lag7 | 233.4 | 1 | 0 | 2.88E-02 | 2.70E-04 | 5.73E-02 | 4.79E-02 | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | 51 |
| H_lag14 | 236.1 | 1 | 0 | 1.49E-02 | -1.45E-02 | 4.42E-02 | 3.20E-01 | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | 51 | |
| H + C | 254 | 1 | 0 | 7.63E-03 | -2.26E-02 | 3.79E-02 | 6.21E-01 | -2.04 | -5.96 | 1.88 | 3.08E-01 | 51 | |
| ON | H_lag14 | 266 | 1 | 0 | 1.55E-02 | 7.74E-03 | 2.32E-02 | 8.77E-05 | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | 51 |
| H_lag7 | 269.1 | 1 | 0 | 1.40E-02 | 5.78E-03 | 2.23E-02 | 8.52E-04 | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | 51 | |
| H | 273.8 | 1 | 0 | 1.02E-02 | -4.22E-04 | 2.08E-02 | 5.98E-02 | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | 51 | |
| QC | H + C | 243.5 | 1 | 0 | 8.36E-03 | 1.29E-03 | 1.54E-02 | 2.05E-02 | -2.48 | -5.29 | 3.36E-01 | 8.44E-02 | 51 |
| H_lag7 | 229.9 | 1 | 0 | 6.90E-03 | 4.02E-04 | 1.34E-02 | 3.74E-02 | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | 51 | |
| H_lag14 + C | 247.5 | 1 | 0 | 3.13E-03 | -3.51E-03 | 9.77E-03 | 3.55E-01 | -2.34 | -4.84 | 1.68E-01 | 6.75E-02 | 51 | |
Abbreviations: AB, Alberta; β, beta coefficient of the variable; BC, British Columbia; BIC, Bayesian Information Criterion; C, period of time with combined effects of vaccination, Alpha variant and winter; CI, 95% confidence interval; H, number of hospitalized COVID-19 patients; lag7, time lags at seven days; lag14, time lags at 14 days; MB, Manitoba; M-Li, McLeod-Li test; N/A, not applicable; nObs, number of observations for model fitting; nV, number of violations in the McLeod-Li test; ON, Ontario; QC, Québec; sidx, stringency index; SK, Saskatchewan
a Results from the final selected models at the provincial level for study objective 2 of general model formulation: sidx ~ H and assessing for confounding from vaccination, the Alpha variant and winter
b Models highlighted in grey were significant at p-value ≤0.05 and pass the McLeod-Li test with two or fewer violations (nV). The models are ordered by the absolute value of the beta coefficient for the number of hospitalized COVID-19 patients. Also shown are the 95% confidence intervals for beta