Table A1. Model formulation and ARIMAX (p, d, q) for provinces.
| Province | Model formulation | ARIMAX (p, d, q)a |
Parameter | Beta coefficient | p-value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| n | 95% CI | |||||
| British Columbia | sidx ~ H_lag14 | ARIMAX (2, 0, 0) | ar1 | 1.22 | 0.969 to 1.48 | 4.86e-21 |
| ar2 | -0.352 | -0.647 to -0.057 | 1.93e-02 | |||
| intercept | 44.6 | 35.3 to 53.9 | 7.71e-21 | |||
| H_lag14 | 0.0644 | 0.0141 to 0.115 | 1.21e-02 | |||
| Alberta | Rt ~ sidx_lag14 | ARIMAX (2, 0, 0) | ar1 | 1.19 | 0.917 to 1.45 | 5.06e-18 |
| ar2 | -0.567 | -0.841 to -0.294 | 4.79e-05 | |||
| intercept | 1.38 | 1.15 to 1.61 | 6.19e-31 | |||
| sidx_lag14 | -0.0073 | -0.0119 to -0.00266 | 2.04e-03 | |||
| sidx ~ H_lag7 + C | ARIMAX (0, 1, 0) | H_lag7 | 0.027 | 0.015 to 0.039 | 1.02e-05 | |
| C | -4.48 | -8.97 to 0.0117 | 5.06e-02 | |||
| Saskatchewan | Rt ~ sidx_lag7 | ARIMAX (0, 0, 1) | ma1 | 0.76 | 0.55 to 0.97 | 1.32e-12 |
| intercept | 1.46 | 1.04 to 1.88 | 1.00e-11 | |||
| sidx_lag7 | -0.00783 | -0.0155 to -0.00018 | 4.48e-02 | |||
| Manitoba | Rt ~ sidx_lag7 | ARIMAX (0, 0, 1) | ma1 | 0.584 | 0.361 to 0.806 | 2.65e-07 |
| intercept | 1.61 | 1.14 to 2.08 | 2.71e-11 | |||
| sidx_lag7 | -0.00814 | -0.0149 to -0.0014 | 1.80e-02 | |||
| sidx ~ H_lag7 | ARIMAX (0, 1, 1) | ma1 | 0.456 | 0.181 to 0.731 | 0.00115 | |
| H_lag7 | 0.0288 | 0.00027 to 0.0573 | 0.04790 | |||
| Ontario | Rt ~ sidx + C | ARIMAX (0, 1, 0) | sidx | -0.0043 | -0.00851 to -8.79e-05 | 0.0454 |
| C | -0.0967 | -0.192 to -0.00118 | 0.0472 | |||
| sidx ~ H_lag14 | ARIMAX (1, 0, 1) | ar1 | 0.698 | 0.413 to 0.982 | 1.59e-06 | |
| ma1 | 0.487 | 0.156 to 0.818 | 3.96e-03 | |||
| intercept | 51.4 | 45.7 to 57.1 | 1.05e-70 | |||
| H_lag14 | 0.0155 | 0.00774 to 0.0232 | 8.77e-05 | |||
| Québec | Rt ~ sidx_lag14 | ARIMAX (1, 0, 1) | ar1 | 0.744 | 0.527 to 0.962 | 2.02e-11 |
| ma1 | 0.775 | 0.566 to 0.984 | 3.88e-13 | |||
| intercept | 1.48 | 1.14 to 1.83 | 2.11e-17 | |||
| sidx_lag14 | -0.00766 | -0.013 to -0.00229 | 5.20e-03 | |||
| sidx ~ H + C | ARIMAX (1, 0, 1) | ar1 | 0.899 | 0.778 to 1.02 | 6.17e-48 | |
| ma1 | 0.75 | 0.48 to 1.02 | 5.15e-08 | |||
| intercept | 56.6 | 46.4 to 66.8 | 1.52e-27 | |||
| H | 0.00836 | 0.00129 to 0.0154 | 2.05e-02 | |||
| C | -2.48 | -5.29 to 0.336 | 8.44e-02 | |||
Abbreviations: ar, autoregressive term; ARIMAX, autoregressive integrated moving average extended; C, period of time with combined effects of vaccination, Alpha variant and winter; CI, 95% confidence interval; lag7, time lags at seven days; lag14, time lags at 14 days; MA, moving average; Rt, transmission rate; sidx, stringency index
a ARIMAX (p,d,q) denotes the number of autoregressive terms, p, degree of differencing, d, and number of moving average terms, q