Table 11. Future likelihood of firearm possession and use in a situation where political violence is perceived as justified, by study group.
| Thinking now about the future and all the changes it might bring, how likely is it that you will use a gun in any of the following ways in the next few years—in a situation where you think force or violence is justified to advance an important political objective? | Republicans | Non-Republicans | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MAGA Republicans* | Strong Republicans | Other Republicans | ||||||
| Unweighted n | Weighted % (95% CI) | Unweighted n | Weighted % (95% CI) | Unweighted n | Weighted % (95% CI) | Unweighted n | Weighted % (95% CI) | |
| I will be armed with a gun. | ||||||||
| Not likely | 761 | 65.8 (62.6, 69.0) | 517 | 78.6 (75.0, 82.3) | 1275 | 79.2 (76.8, 81.6) | 3479 | 87.2 (85.9, 88.4) |
| Somewhat likely | 157 | 15.6 (13.2, 18.1) | 75 | 11.9 (9.1, 14.6) | 181 | 12.7 (10.7, 14.6) | 275 | 8.1 (7.1, 9.1) |
| Very or extremely likely | 191 | 18.6 (15.9, 21.2) | 44 | 9.5 (6.6, 12.4) | 107 | 8.1 (6.5, 9.7) | 148 | 4.7 (3.9, 5.5) |
| I will carry a gun openly, so that people know I am armed. | ||||||||
| Not likely | 921 | 80.4 (77.6, 83.3) | 571 | 88.8 (86.0, 91.7) | 1428 | 90.5 (88.8, 92.2) | 3687 | 93.4 (92.5, 94.4) |
| Somewhat likely | 101 | 10.3 (8.2, 12.4) | 44 | 7.2 (4.9, 9.4) | 90 | 6.3 (4.9, 7.7) | 135 | 4.0 (3.3, 4.7) |
| Very or extremely likely | 86 | 9.3 (7.1, 11.5) | 20 | 4.0 (2.1, 5.9) | 44 | 3.2 (2.2, 4.3) | 77 | 2.6 (1.9, 3.2) |
| I will threaten someone with a gun. | ||||||||
| Not likely | 1092 | 98.0 (97.0, 99.0) | 624 | 97.7 (96.1, 99.3) | 1545 | 98.7 (98.0, 99.3) | 3828 | 97.7 (97.2, 98.3) |
| Somewhat likely | 14 | 1.2 (0.5, 1.9) | 5 | 0.9 (0.0, 1.9) | 15 | 1.1 (0.5, 1.7) | 37 | 1.2 (0.8, 1.7) |
| Very or extremely likely | 6 | 0.8 (0.1, 1.4) | 5 | 1.3 (0.0, 2.6) | 2 | 0.2 (0.0, 0.5) | 31 | 1.0 (0.6, 1.4) |
| I will shoot someone with a gun. | ||||||||
| Not likely | 1064 | 95.5 (94.1, 96.9) | 616 | 95.9 (93.9, 97.9) | 1525 | 97.4 (96.5, 98.2) | 3789 | 96.3 (95.6, 97.1) |
| Somewhat likely | 41 | 3.8 (2.5, 5.1) | 14 | 2.9 (1.2, 4.6) | 28 | 2.0 (1.2, 2.8) | 74 | 2.6 (1.9, 3.2) |
| Very or extremely likely | 6 | 0.7 (0.1, 1.4) | 6 | 1.2 (0.1, 2.3) | 10 | 0.7 (0.2, 1.1) | 35 | 1.1 (0.7, 1.5) |
* Denotes self-identified Republicans who voted for Donald Trump in 2020 and agreed strongly or very strongly with the statement that “the 2020 election was stolen from Donald Trump, and Joe Biden is an illegitimate president.”