a, UMAP embedding of melanoma reference scRNA-seq data, where cells are colored according to their cell types (blue, CD8+ T cells). CAFs, cancer-associated fibroblasts; NK cells, natural killer cells. b, Expression pattern of the marker genes along the exhaustion trajectory. The lines represent the fitted curve using the LOESS, and the shaded area indicates the 95% CI. c, Estimated cell-state abundances of CD8+ T cells in patients stratified into tertiles by TCR expansion level in TCGA data (n = 430). The x axis represents the exhaustion trajectory, from the naive state (left) to the exhausted state (right). The curved line shows mean estimated cell-state abundance across individuals. The P value was computed using MANOVA-Pro and was capped by the number of permutations. d, Kaplan–Meier plot for overall survival between two groups of patients with melanoma stratified by the estimated abundance of CD8+ T cells in each tertile of the exhaustion state in TCGA data. The exhaustion-state tertiles are: time 1, the low-exhaustion state (0–33% of the exhaustion trajectory); time 2, the medium-exhaustion state (33–66% of the exhaustion trajectory); time 3, the high-exhaustion state (66–100% of the exhaustion trajectory). The shaded area represents the 95% CI of the fitted Kaplan–Meier curves. The P values were computed using a two-sided long-rank test. e, Boxplot of estimated cell-state abundance of CD8+ T cells in the patients with melanoma who did not respond to anti-PD-1 ICB (n = 36) versus the responders (n = 34) in each of the exhaustion-state tertiles. Each point represents one patient, color-coded based on their response to ICB. The P value was computed using a two-sided Wilcoxon test. The box indicates the IQR, the line within the box represents the median value and the whiskers extend to data points within 1.5 times the IQR.
Source data