Table 1.
HIV prevalence, viral suppression, transmission sources and impact of counterfactual interventions focused on closing the suppression gap in men by age of male partner, round 18, October 2016 to April 2018
| Age | HIV prevalence in men (% in age bracket) | Men with HIV who have unsuppressed virus (% in age bracket) | Male–female difference in the proportion of individuals with HIV who have unsuppressed virus (difference) |
Contribution of age group to all men with unsuppressed virus (%) | Contribution of age group to all transmitting male partners (%) | Closing half the suppression gap | Closing the suppression gap | 95-95-95 in men | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Contribution of age group to additional number of men with unsuppressed virus in counterfactual (%) | Predicted reduction in incidence in women in round 18 (% of actual incidence) | Contribution of age group to additional number of men with unsuppressed virus in counterfactual (%) | Predicted reduction in incidence in women in round 18 (% of actual incidence) | Contribution of age group to additional number of men with unsuppressed virus in counterfactual (%) | Predicted reduction in incidence in women in round 18 (% of actual incidence) | ||||||
| 15–19 | 0.8 | 73.2 | 36.8 | 5.3 | 1.4 | 5.3 | 21.9 | 5.3 | 43.7 | 7.4 | 72.2 |
| (0.4–1.3) | (56.6–86.2) | (16.8–54.2) | (3.0–8.8) | (0.4–3.5) | (2.5–8.7) | (21.2–22.8) | (2.5–8.7) | (42.4–45.6) | (5.2–9.9) | (68.8–74.6) | |
| 20–24 | 2.1 | 66.5 | 26.6 | 9.0 | 12.7 | 7.1 | 24.7 | 7.1 | 49.6 | 12.2 | 60.4 |
| (1.6–2.7) | (55.5–76.6) | (14.0–38.2) | (6.5–11.8) | (7.5–19.2) | (3.7–10.9) | (23.2–26.2) | (3.7–10.9) | (46.6–52.7) | (9.4–15.6) | (55.6–65.0) | |
| 25–29 | 6.2 | 53.5 | 23.2 | 17.9 | 20.2 | 15.0 | 25.1 | 15.0 | 50.5 | 22.7 | 58.4 |
| (5.2–7.3) | (45.3–61.4) | (13.7–32.6) | (14.6–21.5) | (13.8–27.5) | (9.1–21.5) | (23.9–26.6) | (9.1–21.5) | (47.9–53.5) | (18.2–28.1) | (54.0–62.4) | |
| 30–34 | 12.5 | 39.6 | 19.2 | 24.3 | 19.4 | 21.3 | 25.2 | 21.3 | 50.7 | 26.9 | 58.7 |
| (10.8–14.2) | (33.6–45.8) | (12.1–26.1) | (20.8–28.0) | (13.3–27.3) | (13.7–27.7) | (23.6–27.0) | (13.7–27.7) | (47.4–54.3) | (22.2–31.5) | (53.0–64.0) | |
| 35–39 | 16.4 | 28.9 | 17.6 | 21.3 | 25.8 | 24.0 | 26.9 | 24.0 | 54.3 | 18.6 | 52.9 |
| (14.6–18.2) | (23.3–35.0) | (11.2–24.3) | (17.9–24.8) | (18.4–34.9) | (16.9–31.1) | (24.8–28.7) | (16.9–31.1) | (49.8–58.1) | (13.5–23.6) | (46.6–60.0) | |
| 40–44 | 16.8 | 21.9 | 14.6 | 13.8 | 14.9 | 17.7 | 28.3 | 17.7 | 57.7 | 8.3 | 42.5 |
| (14.8–18.9) | (16.3–28.2) | (8.5–21.5) | (10.6–17.1) | (9.2–21.8) | (10.9–23.9) | (25.8–30.0) | (10.9–23.9) | (52.4–61.1) | (2.6–13.4) | (35.2–51.9) | |
| 45–49 | 16.4 | 19.4 | 12.2 | 8.2 | 4.4 | 9.6 | 27.1 | 9.6 | 56.1 | 3.7 | 40.3 |
| (14.1–19.1) | (13.0–27.0) | (4.5–20.5) | (5.5–11.3) | (1.7–8.5) | (2.7–15.8) | (24.6–29.0) | (2.7–15.8) | (50.1–59.7) | (0.0–8.5) | (29.4–55.1) | |
| Total | 8.0 | 33.9 | 14.8 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 25.1 | 100 | 50.6 | 100 | 58.4 |
| (7.4–8.6) | (29.7–38.3) | (10.0–19.6) | (24.2–26.2) | (48.6–52.8) | (54.9–61.7) | ||||||