Table 1.
Trends in and projections of national Non-communicable disease management in China from 2004 to 2030.
| Observed coverage (95% CI) |
AAPC (95% CrI) |
Predicted coverage (95% CrI) |
Probability of reaching targeta (%) | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2004 | 2009 | 2013 | 2018 | 2004–2018 | 2030 | ||
| Non-use of tobacco | 71.5 (70.6 to 72.4) | 72.3 (71.4 to 73.2) | 73.8 (73.0 to 74.6) | 76.5 (75.7 to 77.2) | 0.5 (−0.3 to 1.5) | 79.4 (66.9 to 88.6) | 47.9 |
| Non-use of alcohol | 67.6 (66.7 to 68.5) | 66.9 (66.0 to 67.8) | 66.2 (65.4 to 67.0) | 72.5 (71.7 to 73.3) | 0.5 (−1.2 to 2.2) | 73.5 (54.6 to 89.0) | 20.5 |
| Sufficient physical activity | 82.2 (81.3 to 83.1) | 84.8 (83.9 to 85.7) | 81.6 (80.8 to 82.4) | 78.5 (77.5 to 79.5) | −0.4 (−1.4 to 0.7) | 74.3 (52.4 to 88.9) | 26.2 |
| Sufficient fruit and vegetable intake | 41.5 (41.0 to 42.0) | 47.2 (46.9 to 47.5) | 53.2 (53.0 to 53.4) | 55.3 (55.1 to 55.5) | 2.1 (0.1 to 4.4) | 67.5 (48.3 to 83.4) | 4.6 |
| Non-hypercholesterolemia | 96.9 (96.6 to 96.6) | 96.7 (92.8 to 92.8) | 92.9 (91.7 to 91.7) | 91.8 (91.7 to 91.7) | −0.5 (−0.9 to −0.2) | 78.9 (56.8 to 92.8) | 50.8 |
| Non-overweight | 74.4 (73.5 to 75.3) | 70.9 (70.0 to 71.8) | 66.7 (65.8 to 67.5) | 60.7 (59.8 to 61.6) | −1.4 (−2.6 to −0.2) | 47.8 (31.7 to 64.4) | 0.1 |
| Hypertension treatment | 23.1 (22.6 to 23.6) | 23.7 (23.3 to 24.1) | 32.5 (32.3 to 32.7) | 34.9 (34.7 to 35.1) | 3.3 (−0.5 to 6.9) | 49.0 (26.7 to 72.4) | 0.5 |
| Diabetes treatment | 20.7 (20.4 to 21.1) | 25.8 (25.5 to 26.1) | 35.6 (35.4 to 35.8) | 34.1 (33.9 to 34.3) | 3.9 (0.0 to 7.6) | 52.6 (27.7 to 75.3) | 0.9 |
| Composite NCD prevention index | 74.0 (50.0 to 92.0) | 75.1 (47.6 to 94.6) | 73.6 (51.4 to 90.8) | 73.6 (53.3 to 89.7) | −0.1 (−1.1 to 0.9) | 72.8 (56.2 to 85.1) | 9.8 |
| Composite NCD treatment index | 22.0 (22.0 to 22.0) | 24.7 (24.6 to 24.9) | 34.0 (33.9 to 34.2) | 34.5 (34.3 to 34.7) | 3.5 (−0.1 to 7.3) | 50.8 (28.5 to 72.5) | 0.6 |
| Composite NCD management index | 62.0 (36.0 to 84.0) | 63.0 (36.4 to 85.9) | 64.2 (43.1 to 82.7) | 64.3 (44.0 to 82.2) | 0.2 (−1.1 to 1.4) | 66.5 (52.1 to 79.1) | 2.3 |
a
WHO's targets of at least 80% health service coverage for the entire population by 2030 for Universal Health Coverage. NCD = Non-communicable disease. 95% CI = 95% Confidence Interval. 95% CrI = 95% Credible Intervals. AAPC = Average annual percentage change.