Fig. 3.

Link between early warning signal (EWS) lead time and number of false positive (FP) EWS. (a) Mean number of FP EWS against mean earliest true positive (TP) EWS date for full range of parameter sets. Mean calculated using all UK SARS-CoV-2 infection waves and, separately, the waves driven by new genomic variants: Alpha, Delta (1st wave), Omicron BA.1 & BA.2. (b) Repeat of (A) but only for two leading indicators (dominant Pango lineage max logistic growth rate (LGR) and mean Simple LGR–see Supplementary Material for full definitions) and only for the waves driven by new genomic variants. (c) Mean EWS results for each phylogenomic-derived leading indicator type.