Figure 2: Expected and Recentered Market Access Growth from Chinese HSR.
Notes: Panel A shows the variation in expected 2007–16 MA growth across Chinese prefectures, computed from 1,999 HSR counterfactuals that permute the opening status of built and unbuilt lines with the same number of cross-prefecture links. Panel B plots the variation in corresponding recentered MA growth: the difference between the MA growth shown in Panel A of Figure 1 and expected MA growth. The HSR network as of 2016 is also shown in this panel.