Table I:

Employment Effects of Market Access: Unadjusted and Recentered Estimates

	Unadjusted OLS (1)	Recentered IV (2)	Controlled OLS (3)
Panel A: No Controls
Market Access Growth	0.232 (0.075)	0.084 (0.097) [−0.245, 0.337]	0.072 (0.093) [−0.169, 0.337]
Expected Market Access Growth			0.317 (0.096)
Panel B: With Geography Controls
Market Access Growth	0.133 (0.064)	0.056 (0.089) [−0.135, 0.280]	0.047 (0.092) [−0.146, 0.280]
Expected Market Access Growth			0.214 (0.073)
Recentered	No	Yes	Yes
Prefectures	275	275	275

Notes: This table reports coefficients from regressions of employment growth on MA growth in Chinese prefectures from 2007–2016. MA growth is unadjusted in Column 1. In Column 2 this treatment is instrumented by MA growth recentered by permuting the opening status of built and unbuilt HSR lines with the same number of cross-prefecture links. Column 3 instead estimates an OLS regression with recentered MA growth as treatment and controlling for expected MA growth given by the same HSR counterfactuals. The regressions in Panel B control for distance to Beijing, latitude, and longitude. Standard errors which allow for linearly decaying spatial correlation (up to a bandwidth of 500km) are reported in parentheses. 95% RI confidence intervals based on the HSR counterfactuals are reported in brackets.