Table 3.

Deterministic and probabilistic base case results

	Sotatercept plus background therapy	Background therapy alone	Difference	Interpretation
Deterministic outcome
Total LYs, per patient
By health state	16.5	5.1	11.5	Favoring sotatercept plus background therapy
Low risk	13.3	1.5	11.9
Intermediate-low risk	2.7	1.2	1.6
Intermediate-high risk	0.5	0.8	− 0.4
High risk	0.04	1.6	− 1.5
Lung/heart-lung transplant	0.01	0.04	− 0.03
By infused prostacyclin use	16.5	5.1	11.5	Favoring sotatercept plus background therapy
Infused prostacyclin-use	1.9	2.0	− 0.1
Infused prostacyclin-free	14.7	3.1	11.6
Landmark survival
1 year	96.4%	91.9%	4.5%	Favoring sotatercept plus background therapy
3 years	89.1%	67.2%	21.9%
5 years	83.0%	45.9%	37.2%
7 years	76.5%	27.1%	49.3%
10 years	67.5%	11.0%	56.5%
15 years	53.5%	1.8%	51.7%
20 years	41.5%	0.3%	41.2%
25 years	30.2%	0.1%	30.2%
30 years	20.5%	0.0%	20.5%
Clinical events, per 1000 patients
PAH hospitalization	121	804	683**	Favoring sotatercept plus background therapy
Lung/heart-lung transplant	1	6	4**	Favoring sotatercept plus background therapy
Probabilistic outcome, mean (95% Crl)
Total LYs, per patient	15.9 (10.3, 18.0)	5.3 (4.3, 6.8)	10.6 (4.9, 13.2)	Favoring sotatercept plus background therapy
Total infused prostacyclin–free LYs, per patient	13.9 (8.9, 16.5)	3.3 (2.2, 4.9)	10.6 (5.2, 13.6)	Favoring sotatercept plus background therapy

All outcomes were discounted at 3% annually, as commonly adopted in population health models [14]

**The number of hospitalizations and lung/heart-lung transplants averted was rounded down to the nearest integer to be conservative regarding the clinical benefit of sotatercept. Also, half-cycle correction was applied

Crl credible interval; LY life-year; PAH pulmonary arterial hypertension