Table 1.
NHB adult smoking and NVP prevalence, smoking and vaping attributable deaths, life years lost and public health impact, ages 18 years and above, 2021–2060
| Status quo scenario | |||||
| Category | Category/year | 2021 | 2026 | 2060 | Cumulative impact * |
| Prevalence | Menthol smoker | 12.1% | 9.9% | 4.4% | −63.5% |
| Non-menthol smoker | 2.2% | 1.6% | 0.6% | −74.4% | |
| Total smokers† | 14.4% | 11.5% | 5.0% | −65.2% | |
| Former smoker | 10.5% | 10.5% | 5.5% | −48.0% | |
| Exclusive NVP user‡ | 3.3% | 4.4% | 6.3% | 88.0% | |
| Former NVP user | 0.2% | 0.4% | 3.6% | 2013.1% | |
| Smoking and vaping attributable deaths§ | Menthol smoker | 30 063 | 27 622 | 10 153 | 779 841 |
| Non-menthol smoker | 8238 | 6255 | 1180 | 138 930 | |
| Former smoker | 8437 | 9745 | 9091 | 413 089 | |
| Exclusive NVP user | 696 | 1015 | 1479 | 53 062 | |
| Former NVP user | 0 | 0 | 215 | 1535 | |
| Total | 47 435 | 44 637 | 22 117 | 1 386 457 | |
| Life years lost | Menthol smoker | 474 557 | 418 730 | 139 225 | 11 348 726 |
| Non-menthol smoker | 109 873 | 82 091 | 16 468 | 1 839 936 | |
| Former smoker | 83 179 | 93 507 | 84 484 | 3 850 838 | |
| Exclusive NVP user | 11 059 | 15 546 | 24 267 | 820 043 | |
| Former NVP user | 0 | 0 | 3420 | 28 200 | |
| Total | 678 668 | 609 874 | 267 865 | 17 887 742 | |
| Menthol ban scenario | |||||
| Prevalence | Menthol smoker | 12.1% | 0.7% | 0.2% | −98.6% |
| Non-menthol smoker | 2.2% | 6.7% | 3.6% | 58.7% | |
| Total smokers | 14.4% | 7.4% | 3.7% | −74.0% | |
| Former smoker | 10.5% | 12.8% | 5.5% | −47.4% | |
| Exclusive NVP user | 3.3% | 6.5% | 8.1% | 143.4% | |
| Former NVP user | 0.2% | 0.5% | 4.6% | 2590.1% | |
| Smoking and vaping attributable deaths | Menthol smoker | 30 063 | 2442 | 560 | 89 509 |
| Non-menthol smoker | 8238 | 20 663 | 5479 | 496 086 | |
| Former smoker | 8437 | 10 687 | 9642 | 451 850 | |
| Exclusive NVP user | 696 | 2213 | 2085 | 91 213 | |
| Former NVP users | 0 | 0 | 268 | 1904 | |
| Total | 47 435 | 36 006 | 18 034 | 1 130 563 | |
| Life years lost | Menthol smoker | 474 557 | 36 249 | 7580 | 1 291 542 |
| Non-menthol smoker | 109 873 | 298 181 | 79 258 | 7 020 456 | |
| Former smoker | 83 179 | 105 110 | 88 381 | 4 258 908 | |
| Exclusive NVP user | 11 059 | 32 115 | 32 234 | 1 325 126 | |
| Former NVP users | 0 | 0 | 4290 | 35 242 | |
| Total | 678 668 | 471 656 | 211 743 | 13 931 273 | |
| Public health impact: difference between the status quo and menthol ban scenario¶ | |||||
| Relative reduction in rrevalence | Menthol smoker | – | −92.7% | −96.1% | – |
| Non-menthol smoker | – | 308.5% | 518.7% | – | |
| Total smokers | – | −35.7% | −25.3% | – | |
| Total NVP users | – | 46.0% | 29.4% | – | |
| Gain | Averted deaths | – | 8631 | 4083 | 255 895 |
| Averted life years lost | – | 138 218 | 56 122 | 3 956 469 | |
| % averted deaths | – | 19.3% | 18.5% | 18.5% | |
| % averted life years lost | – | 22.7% | 21.0% | 22.1% | |
*The cumulative impact is measured in terms of the relative change from 2021 to 2060 for prevalence rates (ie, (2060–2021)/2021) and the sum of the smoking and vaping attributable deaths or life years lost over the years 2021–2060.
†Total smokers include menthol and non-menthol smokers.
‡Exclusive NVP users includes exclusive NVP users who initiated from never smokers and who switched from current smokers (former smoker now using NVPs).
§The number of smoking and vaping attributable deaths and life years lost is rounded to the nearest integer.
¶The difference between two scenarios includes the comparisons for prevalence in relative terms and for health gains in absolute terms. Relative reduction in prevalence is measured as the relative difference between the status quo scenario and the menthol ban scenario,(ie, (postban – preban)/preban) in year 2026 and 2060; the gain is measured as the increase in the averted deaths and life years lost from the status quo scenario and the menthol ban scenario, and % reduction in gain is calculated as gain/preban.
NHB, non-Hispanic black; NVP, nicotine vaping product.