Figure 3. Rates of Outpatient COVID-19 Therapy and Inpatient Admissions by COVID-19 Severity Risk and Nirmatrelvir Contraindications.

The figure shows rates of any outpatient COVID-19 treatment, nirmatrelvir treatment, and inpatient admission for Medicare beneficiaries in 2022 stratified by their COVID-19 severity risk quintile. This score serves as a measure of the aggregate observable risk across dozens of characteristics that a clinician may consider in deciding to prescribe COVID-19 therapy. Scores were based on estimated coefficients from a linear regression model of mortality following COVID-19 (within 21 days) in 2021, using each beneficiary’s characteristics in 2022 (eMethods 2 in Supplement 1). Beneficiaries were assigned to COVID-19 severity risk quintiles.