Table 1.

Demand forecasting scenarios.

Scenario	Primary Target Population	Secondary Target Populations
Base Case: Current WHO recommendations	Two-dose schedule for girls under 15 years old. All countries introduce by 2028.	Only currently planned MAC campaigns with two doses each are for girls under 15 years old and gender-neutral vaccination in countries with such existing recommendations (only girls in other countries).
Scenario A: One-dose schedules	One-dose schedule for girls under 15 years old. LICs and LMICs adopt the one-dose schedule in 2023, while UMICs and HICs (including China) have a delayed switch in 2025.	As in base case, except that MAC campaigns for girls under 15 years old will also use one-dose schedule.
Scenario B: One-dose schedules and gender-neutral vaccination	As in Scenario A. One-dose schedule for girls under 15 years old. LICs and LMICs adopt the one-dose schedule in 2023, while UMICs and HICs (including China) have a delayed switch in 2025.	As in Scenario A, but all countries adopt gender-neutral vaccination in the same year as the implementation of the one-dose schedule (unless already implemented).
Scenario C: Gender-neutral vaccination in HICs and MICs	As in Base Case. Two-dose schedule for girls under 15 years old. All countries introduce by 2028.	As in base case and all HICs and UMICs (including China) implement gender-neutral vaccination. Gavi-supported countries introduce with MACs for girls under 15 years old.
Scenario D: To achieve global cervical cancer elimination goals	As in base case, but assumes that all countries will achieve at least 90% coverage by 2030.	No MACs or vaccination of boys.

HIC: high-income country; LIC: low-income country; LMIC: lower-middle-income country; MIC: middle-income country; UMIC: upper-middle-income country.