FIGURE 3.

Population‐level best model resulting from a Bayesian model comparison. Random effects Bayesian model selection showed that labeled Model #17* (representing here a fully connected original M17 model with modulation of intrinsic/self‐connection at each node, with exception of lateral IFG connections [B]) had greater evidence compared to the other models, and was selected for subsequent quantitative analysis of effective connectivity between the subgroups (Delirium, Non‐Delirious) or conditions (PRE, POST). Here, Bayesian model comparison was conducted for all data (A) and separately for (C) Delirium PRE, (D) Delirium POST, (E) Non‐Delirious PRE, and (F) Non‐Delirious POST. Note: Exceedance probability is the probability of each model being better than any other model. The advantage of using exceedance probabilities is that they are sensitive to the confidence in the posterior probability and easily interpretable (because they sum to unity over all models tested). The best model is the one with highest exceedance probability (equivalently, the highest expected posterior probability; the ranking is the same). A1, primary auditory sensory area; IFG, inferior frontal gyrus; RFX, random effect analysis; STG, superior temporal gyrus