Table 1.
Model parameter values and ranges.
| Parameter | Estimate | Range Evaluated | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Population and drug possession | |||
| Adult population with opioid use disorder | 139,867 | 37,000–166,130 | NSDUH 2021 (35) Krawczyk et al. 2022(39) |
| Percent of drug supply with fentanyl | 50% | DDPHE, 2022 (36) based on drug fatality data from 2021 | |
| Amount of drug in possession | Kennedy et al. 2018(38) | ||
| >4 grams | 17% | ||
| 1–4 grams | 18% | ||
| <1 gram | 65% | ||
| MOUD treatment | |||
| Number on MOUD, annually | 9,105 | 4,553–13,700 | Krawczyk 2022(39) |
| Average duration of MOUD | 6 months | 3 months- 9 months | Morgan et al. 2018 (40) Morgan et al. 2021 (41) |
| Probability of MOUD while incarcerated | 1 | 0–1 | |
| Probability of linking to MOUD post-incarceration, if on MOUD in prison | 0.48 | 0.25–0.75 | Gordon et al. 2017 (49) Magura et al. 2009 (50) Gordon et al. 2014 (48) |
| Criminal justice | |||
| Annual arrest probability with drug possession | |||
| Standard | 0.13 | PEW Charitable Trusts (43) | |
| Calibrated to Colorado | 0.07 | Calibrated to Colorado drug arrest rate, 2021 (47) | |
| Low policing | 0.05 | Estimated | |
| High policing | 0.25 | Estimated | |
| Multiplier on likelihood of subsequent arrest given prior arrest | 2.43x | 1.22–3.65 | Langan et al. (2002) (42) Belenko et al. (2013)(34) |
| Diversion | |||
| Probability of diversion if felony possession | 0.1 | Colorado Judicial Department 2021 (27), Simulated estimate | |
| Duration of diversion | 12 months | Colorado Judicial Department 2021 (27) | |
| Probability of completing diversion program | 0.89 | Colorado Judicial Department 2021 (27) | |
| Probability of arrest within one year of diversion program completion | 0.07 | Colorado Judicial Department 2021 (27) | |
| Mortality | |||
| Annual overdose probability | 0.0142 | 0.0090–0.0405 | CDC NCHS 2021 (2, 37) Krawczyk 2022(39) National Center for Vital Statistics (54) |
| Overdose multiplier within first month of release from incarceration | 40x | 30x-51x | Ranapurwala et al. 2018(24) |
| Overdose multiplier within first year of release from incarceration | 10x | 9.5x-11.7x | Ranapurwala et al. 2018(24) |
| Costs | |||
| Cost of incarceration, 6 months | $19,700 | Vera, 2015 (44) | |
| Cost of diversion program, annual per-person | $500 | Colorado Judicial Department 2021 (27) | |
| Cost of overdose death | |||
| Healthcare costs only | $5,500 | Florence et al. 2021(45) | |
| Lost productivity costs only | $1.4 million | Florence et al. 2021(45) | |
| Value of a statistical life | $10 million | Florence et al. 2021(45) | |
| Cost of MOUD, annual per-person | $5,980 | NIDA, 2022 (1) |