Table 2.
5-year model results with varying felony possession of fentanyl policies and interventions implemented.
| Total opioid overdose deaths | Total incarcerations | Total cost of incarcerations, millions | Total costs of death (healthcare costs only), millions | Total Cost | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No intervention | Deaths | Percent Change | Incarcerations | Percent Change | |||
| Base Case (Policy Scenario A) | 5,460 (410–9,260) | 2,740 (230–10,500) | $74.11 ($7.39-$280.28) | $29.80 ($2.25-$50.60) | $163.90 ($14.06-$471.78) | ||
| Policy Scenario B | 6,490 (710–12,240) | 19% (16–38% | 5,430 (520–19,720) | 98% (85–98%) | $154.30 ($18.42-$576.62) | $35.43 ($3.89-$66.84) | $249.05 ($28.00-$790.04) |
| Policy Scenario C | 9,990 (930–21,360) | 83% (67–153%) | 13,560 (1,000–43,620) | 395% (276–392%) | $453.69 ($42.36-$1,792.83) | $54.57 ($5.09-$116.68) | $565.20 ($52.07-$2,038.11) |
| 100% MOUD in jails with 48% linkage post-incarceration | |||||||
| Policy Scenario A | 5,380 (390–9,120) | 2,630 (210–9,650) | $73.82 ($7.54-$275.87) | $29.38 ($2.14-$49.82) | $167.90 ($15.58-$477.84) | ||
| Policy Scenario B | 6,320 (540–11,580) | 18% | 5,200 (420–18,620) | 98% | $153.08 ($15.38-$576.47) | $34.54 ($2.93-$63.24) | $256.70 ($24.53-$806.66) |
| Policy Scenario C | 9,490 (790–19,650) | 76% | 12,880 (900–40,860) | 390% | $444.15 ($42.08-$1,695.20) | $51.83 ($4.34-$107.30) | $581.20 ($53.61-$2,028.79) |
| 10% move to diversion program | |||||||
| Policy Scenario A | 5,360 (460–9,010) | 2,490 (220–9,940) | $67.39 ($6.95-$260.82) | $29.30 ($2.52-$49.22) | $156.87 ($14.29-$448.37) | ||
| Policy Scenario B | 6,300 (520–11,810) | 17% | 4,950 (380–18,350) | 98% | $140.48 ($13.39-$541.85) | $34.43 ($2.85-$64.50) | $234.63 ($20.95-$750.45) |
| Policy Scenario C | 9,510 (1,010–19,680) | 77% | 12,450 (1,050–40,460) | 399% | $414.96 ($46.04-$1,555.31) | $51.94 ($5.51-$107.47) | $524.90 ($56.36-$1,793.60) |
| 10% move to diversion program, 100% MOUD in jails with 48% linkage post-incarceration | |||||||
| Policy Scenario A | 5,290 (530–8,710) | 2,390 (210–8,740) | $67.12 ($7.04-$245.01) | $28.92 ($2.90-$47.56) | $160.51 ($16.73-$446.35) | ||
| Policy Scenario B | 6,150 (570–10,980) | 16% | 4,740 (390–18,110) | 98% | $139.38 ($14.19-$539.41) | $33.61 ($3.12-$59.99) | $241.59 ($23.80-$768.32) |
| Policy Scenario C | 9,050 (850–19,850) | 71% | 11,820 (910–40,250) | 394% | $406.25 ($41.64-$1,596.35) | $49.43 ($4.64-$108.40) | $539.51 ($54.43-$1,924.38) |