Table 4 –

Calibration performance for competing prediction models using data available from either claims or electronic health records (EHRs) vs. only data typically available from insurance claims.

ALL MENTAL HEALTH ENCOUNTERS
	# of Self-harm events		Predicted Risk		Observed Risk
	EHR and Claims	Claims only	EHR and Claims	Claims only	EHR and Claims	Claims only
<50%	2287	2389	0.001	0.001	0.001	0.001
50%−75%	4091	3956	0.004	0.004	0.003	0.003
75%−90%	6610	6606	0.009	0.009	0.010	0.010
90%−95%	4295	4306	0.018	0.018	0.019	0.018
95%−99%	7449	7652	0.039	0.039	0.039	0.040
99%−99.5%	1736	1766	0.084	0.083	0.076	0.075
>99.5%	3442	3235	0.133	0.136	0.144	0.139
LIMITED TO HEALTH SYSTEMS AND YEARS WITH >50% RECORDING OF PHQ-9 RESULTS
	# of Self-harm events		Predicted Risk		Observed Risk
	EHR and Claims	Claims only	EHR and Claims	Claims only	EHR and Claims	Claims only
<50%	156	297	0.001	0.001	0.001	0.002
50%−75%	364	486	0.005	0.004	0.004	0.005
75%−90%	812	792	0.010	0.010	0.012	0.014
90%−95%	667	542	0.020	0.020	0.028	0.028
95%−99%	921	851	0.046	0.047	0.046	0.054
99%−99.5%	272	195	0.109	0.109	0.120	0.108
>99.5%	350	379	0.173	0.169	0.195	0.190