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. 2024 Feb 5;9(2):550–560. doi: 10.1038/s41564-023-01587-5

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© The Author(s) 2024

Open Access This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article’s Creative Commons license, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article’s Creative Commons license and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this license, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/.

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Fig. 2 — a–d, The four plots describe some of the lineage annotations produced by our method based on the public SARS-CoV-2 data. The solid black line is the median estimated growth trajectory, while the dashed lines represent the trajectories that would result from the lower and upper bounds of the 95% credible interval of the growth rate. The x-axis shows the weeks since first detection in each country. a, Growth trend of a lineage throughout the United Kingdom with a notably higher presence in Wales. b, Simple, high but low-certainty growth estimate of a lineage exclusive to England. c, Steady growth of an international lineage present in both the United Kingdom and the United States. d, A lineage which appears to have stagnated in growth and should be deprioritized for lineage labelling.