Fig 3. Estimated person-to-person transmission probabilities.

Shown are posterior medians of the infectious contact probabilities, i.e. the probabilities that a transmission event would have occurred from an infected person over its infectious period if the contacted person had not already been infected by another person. Infectious contact probabilities are calculated from the person-to-person transmission rates per infectious period β_ij and the Laplace transform of the scaled infectious period distribution: $\mathbb{P}\left(i\text{infected}\text{by}j\right)=1-{(1+\frac{{\beta }_{ij}}{\alpha })}^{\alpha }$, where α = 50 is the shape parameter of the infectious period probability distribution.