Extended Data Fig. 7. Changes in species joint niche marginality between current (1981-2010) and future (2031–2070).

Data are based on the UKESM1-0-LL Global Circulation Model and IPCC Shared Socioeconomic Pathway SSP 5-8.5. Numbers of species in four groups, with (left column) conditions currently within trailing edge niche marginality in COST full member countries; (middle column, dark green and yellow in Fig. 3) number of species with trailing niche marginality in the future time period; (right column, corresponding to red and orange in Fig. 3) number of species losing suitable climatic conditions between the current and future periods. Original data are at the level of 1 km² pixels, but here the data are aggregated to 10 km × 10 km pixels to improve visualization. The highest value within this 100 km² area is displayed. Values are for (a, b, c) amphibian species, (d, e, f) species of large birds, (g, h, i) several large carnivorans, and (j, k, l) a collection of forest tree species. Calculation of change in number of species with marginal niche conditions was based on species maps (Appendices S3-6, Supplemental Materials). See Extended Data Table 1 for species identities. See Methods for details on the calculation of climatic niche marginality for species and the filtering of pixels with a CORINE land cover layer.