Table 1.

Estimation of Lifetime Risk of HF

Author, publication year	Vasan 2022¹	Huffman 2013⁹	Pandey 2018²
Years studied	Framingham Heart Study: 1965–2014	Chicago Heart Association Detection Project in Industry: 1967–2003; Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities: 1987–2005; Cardiovascular Health Study: 1989 – 2004	Cardiovascular Health Study: Multiethnic Study of Atherosclerosis
Methods	Lifetime risk evaluated at up to 45 years of follow up	Lifetime risk for developing HF at index age 45 y to age 95 y (CHA) or through age 75 y (ARIC) with death free of HF as a competing event.	Lifetime risk at index age 45 y determined using a life-table analysis with a modified Kaplan-Meier method using death free of HF as a competing risk
Lifetime Risk for HF	1965–1989:19.0% 1990–2014: 23.7%	Chicago Heart Association 30.2% for white men, 20.1% for Black men, 32.3% for white women, and 23.7% for Black women. Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities: 19.1% for White men, 21.3% for Black men, 13.4% for White women, 23.9% for Black women	Men: 27.4%; Women: 23.8% Non-Black: 24.9%; Black: 22.4%
Lifetime Risk in HF Subtypes	HF Subtypes from 1990–2014 HFpEF: 19.3% HFrEF: 11.4%	N/A	HFpEF: Men: 10.4%, Women 10.7% Black: 7.7%, Non-Black: 11.2% HFrEF: Men 10.6%; Women 5.8% Black: 7.7%, Non-Black: 7.9%

CHA = Chicago Heart Association Detection Project in Industry; CHS = Cadiovascular Health Study, FHS = Framingham Heart Study; HF = heart failure; HFpEF = heart failure with preserved ejection fraction; HFrEF = heart failure with reduced ejection fraction (HFpEF); MESA = Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis

^1.

Vasan RS, Enserro DM, Beiser AS, Xanthakis V. Lifetime Risk of Heart Failure Among Participants in the Framingham Study. JAm Coll Cardiol. 2022 Jan 25;79(3):250–63.

^2.

Pandey A, Omar W, Ayers C, LaMonte M, Klein L, Allen NB, et al. Sex and Race Differences in Lifetime Risk of Heart Failure with Preserved Ejection Fraction and Heart Failure With Reduced Ejection Fraction. Circulation. 2018 Apr 24;137(17):1814–23.

^9.

Huffman MD, Berry JD, Ning H, Dyer AR, Garside DB, Cai X, et al. Lifetime Risk for Heart Failure Among White and Black Americans: Cardiovascular Lifetime Risk Pooling Project. JAm Coll Cardiol. 2013 Apr 9;61(14):1510–7.