Table 2:
Time to predefined 1% and 5% resistance thresholds by antibiotic introduction strategy under baseline model conditions
| Time to 1% resistance threshold (years) |
Time to 5% resistance threshold (years) |
End of drugs’ lifespan (TL) |
Prevalence of gonorrhoea at TL |
Mean number of incident infections per year, t <TL (range) |
|||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drug A | Drug B | Drugs A and B |
Drug A | Drug B | Drugs A and B |
||||
| Random 50–50 allocation | 15·0 | 16·3 | 17·2 | 18·7 | 19·2 | 19·5 | 19·2 | 3·16% | 179 023 (178 005–182 998) |
| Combination therapy | 17·7 | 17·7 | 17·7 | 19·9 | 19·9 | 19·9 | 19·9 | 3·14% | 178 641 (177 998–181 731) |
| Reserve strategy | 4·7 | 11·8 | 14·6 | 6·5 | 13·9 | 17·9 | 13·9 | 3·13% | 180 084 (178 011–184 405) |
| Gradual switch to 50–50 | 7·9 | 15·6 | 15·8 | 13·6 | 18·2 | 18·2 | 18·2 | 3·36% | 180 983 (178 011–191 703) |
| Monotherapy, drug A | 4·7 | NA | NA | 6·5 | NA | NA | 6·5 | 3·15% | 179 220 (178 011–182 179) |
TL=time in years until both drugs A and B hit their 5% resistance thresholds, warranting new treatment recommendations. The range is bounded by the absolute minimum and maximum annual results. NA=not applicable.