TABLE 1.
Estimated survival probabilities at 1, 2, 5 and 10 years in patients with NMIBC stratified by the risk models in the BCG cohort patients.
| Risk group | Recurrence‐free survival % years (95% CI) | Progression‐free survival % years (95% CI) | Cancer‐specific survival % years (95% CI) | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 year | 2 years | 5 years | 10 years | 1 year | 2 years | 5 years | 10 years | 1 year | 2 year | 5 years | 10 years | |
| The 2019 EAU risk model | ||||||||||||
| Intermediate risk | 84 (80–88) | 77 (71–81) | 69 (64–75) | 65 (59–72) | 97 (94–99) | 95 (91–97) | 93 (89–96) | 93 (89–96) | 99 (98–100) | 99 (97–100) | 96 (93–98) | 95 (91–97) |
| High risk | 85 (84–87) | 79 (77–81) | 71 (68–73) | 63 (59–66) | 96 (95–97) | 94 (93–95) | 90 (88–91) | 86 (83–88) | 99 (99–100) | 99 (98–99) | 96 (94–97) | 92 (89–94) |
| Highest risk | 82 (79–85) | 76 (73–79) | 67 (63–70) | 58 (51–64) | 94 (92–96) | 90 (87–92) | 83 (80–86) | 80 (75–83) | 99 (99–100) | 99 (98–99) | 94 (92–96) | 87 (82–91) |
| The 2021 EAU risk model | ||||||||||||
| Intermediate risk | 86 (82–89) | 80 (75–83) | 72 (67–77) | 66 (60–72) | 98 (96–99) | 96 (94–98) | 94 (91–97) | 94 (92–97) | 99 (98–100) | 99 (98–100) | 97 (95–99) | 97 (93–98) |
| High risk | 86 (84–87) | 79 (77–81) | 71 (68–73) | 62 (58–65) | 96 (95–97) | 93 (92–94) | 88 (87–90) | 85 (83–87) | 99 (99–100) | 99 (98–99) | 95 (94–96) | 91 (88–93) |
| Very high risk | 77 (73–80) | 70 (66–74) | 63 (58–67) | 58 (53–64) | 93 (90–95) | 89 (86–91) | 84 (80–87) | 85 (83–88) | 99 (98–100) | 99 (97–99) | 94 (92–96) | 88 (82–93) |
| The CUETO model | ||||||||||||
| Low risk (scores 0–4) | 87 (84–89) | 83 (79–85) | 77 (73–80) | 70 (64–75) | 98 (96–99) | 96 (94–98) | 94 (91–96) | 94 (90–96) | ‐ | ‐ | ‐ | ‐ |
| Intermediate risk (scores 5–6) | 86 (84–88) | 80 (77–83) | 73 (70–76) | 63 (57–69) | 96 (93–97) | 93 (90–95) | 90 (86–93) | 81 (72–88) | ‐ | ‐ | ‐ | ‐ |
| High risk (scores 7–9) | 83 (80–85) | 75 (72–78) | 65 (61–68) | 59 (55–64) | 96 (95–97) | 93 (91–94) | 89 (87–91) | 88 (85–90) | ‐ | ‐ | ‐ | ‐ |
| Highest risk (scores 10–16) | 81 (77–85) | 72 (67–76) | 64 (58–69) | 55 (47–62) | 95 (93–96) | 90 (88–92) | 84 (81–87) | 76 (69–82) | ‐ | ‐ | ‐ | ‐ |
| The J‐NICE model (recurrence/progression/cancer‐specific death) | ||||||||||||
| Intermediate (scores 5–6/3–9/4) | 83 (77–88) | 79 (72–84) | 74 (67–80) | 65 (50–76) | 96 (95–97) | 94 (92–95) | 91 (90–93) | 88 (85–91) | 99 (99–100) | 99 (98–100) | 96 (95–98) | 94 (92–96) |
| High (scores 7–16/10–19/5) | 83 (80–85) | 75 (72–77) | 67 (63–70) | 59 (54–64) | 96 (94–97) | 92 (90–94) | 87 (84–89) | 83 (78–87) | 99 (99–100) | 98 (97–99) | 94 (92–95) | 86 (81–90) |
Abbreviations: BCG, bacillus Calmette‐Guerin; CI, confidence interval; CUETO, Club Urologico Espanol de Tratamiento Oncologico; EAU, European Association of Urology; J‐NICE, Japanese NIshinihon uro‐onCology Extensive collaboration group; NMIBC, non‐muscle invasive bladder cancer.