Table 1.
Posterior summaries of model parameters
| Variable | Estimated median (95% BCI) | OR | Posterior probability of OR > 1 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Year | |||
| 1990–1994 | Ref | Ref | – |
| 1995–1999 | 0.98 (−0.32, 2.27) | 2.68 (0.72, 9.69) | 0.95 |
| 2000–2004 | 0.43 (0.27, 0.59)a | 1.54 (1.31, 1.80) | > 99.99 |
| 2005–2009 | 1.01 (0.81, 1.22)a | 2.75 (2.24, 3.39) | > 99.99 |
| 2010–2014 | 0.40 (0.21, 0.59)a | 1.49 (1.24, 1.80) | > 99.99 |
| ≥ 2015 | −0.44 (−0.63, −0.24)a | 0.64 (0.53, 0.78) | < 0.01 |
| Age-gender group (years) | |||
| Surveys across age and gender | Ref | Ref | – |
| Female (0–9) | −2.15 (−2.40, −1.91)a | 0.12 (0.09, 0.15) | < 0.01 |
| Female (10–19) | −1.35 (−1.53, −1.18)a | 0.26 (0.22, 0.31) | < 0.01 |
| Female (20–29) | −0.79 (−0.95, −0.63)a | 0.45 (0.39, 0.53) | < 0.01 |
| Female (30–39) | −0.58 (−0.72, −0.44)a | 0.56 (0.49, 0.64) | < 0.01 |
| Female (40–49) | −0.63 (−0.78, −0.48)a | 0.53 (0.46, 0.62) | < 0.01 |
| Female (50–59) | −0.31 (−0.46, −0.16)a | 0.73 (0.63, 0.85) | < 0.01 |
| Female (≥ 60) | −0.49 (−0.65, −0.33)a | 0.61 (0.52, 0.72) | < 0.01 |
| Male (0–9) | −1.94 (−2.15, −1.75)a | 0.14 (0.12, 0.17) | < 0.01 |
| Male (10–19) | −1.11 (−1.27, −0.95)a | 0.33 (0.28, 0.39) | < 0.01 |
| Male (20–29) | −0.07 (−0.22, 0.08) | 0.93 (0.80, 1.08) | 0.18 |
| Male (30–39) | 0.40 (0.27, 0.53)a | 1.49 (1.30, 1.70) | > 99.99 |
| Male (40–49) | 0.57 (0.43, 0.70)a | 1.76 (1.54, 2.01) | > 99.99 |
| Male (50–59) | 0.65 (0.50, 0.79)a | 1.91 (1.66, 2.20) | > 99.99 |
| Male (≥ 60) | 0.46 (0.31, 0.61)a | 1.59 (1.36, 1.84) | > 99.99 |
| LST at night (°C) | 0.21 (0.11, 0.30)a | 1.23 (1.12, 1.35) | > 99.99 |
| LST in the daytime (°C) | |||
| < 24.48 | Ref | Ref | – |
| 24.48–28.47 | −0.24 (−0.36, −0.12)a | 0.78 (0.70, 0.88) | < 0.01 |
| ≥ 28.47 | 0.20 (−0.03, 0.43) | 1.22 (0.97, 1.54) | 0.96 |
| Precipitation (mm) | |||
| < 16337.64 | Ref | Ref | – |
| 16337.64–18856.80 | −0.29 (−0.37, −0.21)a | 0.75 (0.69, 0.81) | < 0.01 |
| ≥ 18856.80 | −0.23 (−0.31, −0.15)a | 0.79 (0.73, 0.86) | < 0.01 |
| Night light | 0.47 (0.35, 0.59)a | 1.60 (1.43, 1.80) | > 99.99 |
| Land cover | |||
| Shrub and grass | Ref | Ref | – |
| Forest | 0.45 (−1.30, 2.18) | 1.58 (0.27, 8.82) | 0.69 |
| Urban | 0.24 (0.07, 0.42)a | 1.27 (1.07, 1.52) | > 99.99 |
| Wet area | 0.06 (−0.18, 0.30) | 1.06 (0.84, 1.35) | 0.69 |
| Crop | −1.95 (−3.03, −1.01)a | 0.14 (0.05, 0.36) | < 0.01 |
| Spatial range (km) | 19.58 (16.02, 23.95) | – | – |
| σsp | 9.12 (7.07, 11.81) | – | – |
aSignificant effect identified by not including zero in the 95% BCI of posterior distribution of the corresponding coefficient