Table 3.
Observed rates and predicted risks of postoperative outcomes and diagnostic performance, discrimination, and calibration of the ACS NSQIP SRC.
|
Outcome |
Risk of outcome |
Diagnostic performance |
Discrimination |
Calibration |
Accuracy |
||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Observed rate n (%) |
Predicted risk (%; P25–P75) |
Sensitivity (95% CI) |
Specificity (95% CI) |
AUC (95% CI; p-value) |
HL-test Chi2 (p-value) |
Brier score | |
| Multiple rib fractures (n = 58) | |||||||
| Serious complication | 10 (17.2%) | 8.3 (6.6–16.4) | 80.0 (44.4–97.5) | 52.1 (37.2–66.7) | 0.75 (0.62–0.85; 0.010) | 4.161 (0.761) | 0.132 |
| Any complication | 36 (62.1%) | 11.0 (8.4–17.5) | 66.7 (49.0–81.4) | 72.7 (49.8–89.3) | 0.77 (0.64–0.87; <0.001) | 7.456 (0.488) | 0.451 |
| Readmission | 4 (6.9%) | 4.8 (3.3–5.7) | 25.0 (0.6–80.6) | 70.4 (56.4–82.0) | 0.57 (0.43–0.70; 0.514) | 6.142 (0.631) | 0.065 |
| Return to OR | 2 (3.4%) | 3.1 (2.7–4.2) | 50.0 (1.3–98.7) | 41.1 (28.1–55.0) | 0.51 (0.37–0.64; 0.976) | 8.280 (0.309) | 0.033 |
| Death | 1 (1.7%) | 0.2 (0.1–1.4) | 100.0 (2.5–100.0) | 52.6 (39.0–66.0) | N.D. | 0.000 (N.D.) | 0.015 |
| Pelvic ring/acetabular fracture (n = 116) | |||||||
| Serious complication | 23 (19.8%) | 6.1 (4.3–9.4) | 30.4 (13.2–52.9) | 76.3 (66.4–84.5) | 0.64 (0.55–0.73; 0.021) | 12.149 (0.145) | 0.171 |
| Any complication | 81 (69.8%) | 6.5 (4.5–9.5) | 30.9 (21.1–42.1) | 97.1 (85.1–99.9) | 0.66 (0.57–0.75; 0.002) | 9.637 (0.291) | 0.588 |
| Readmission | 6 (5.2%) | 2.7 (1.9–3.9) | 16.7 (0.4–64.1) | 90.9 (83.9–95.6) | 0.69 (0.60–0.78; 0.008) | 9.279 (0.233) | 0.049 |
| Return to OR | 19 (16.4%) | 2.6 (1.5–3.5) | 47.4 (24.4–71.1) | 67.0 (56.7–76.2) | 0.65 (0.56–0.74; 0.035) | 8.204 (0.414) | 0.154 |
| Death | 1 (0.9%) | 0.1 (0.0–0.4) | 100.0 (2.5–100.0) | 77.4 (68.7–84.7) | N.D. | 0.142 (0.998) | 0.008 |
| Femoral fracture (n = 261) | |||||||
| Serious complication | 29 (11.1%) | 8.7 (6.0–13.1) | 37.9 (20.7–57.7) | 69.4 (63.0–75.3) | 0.65 (0.59–0.71; 0.003) | 5.783 (0.672) | 0.096 |
| Any complication | 150 (57.5%) | 8.4 (5.8–13.3) | 40.0 (32.1–48.3) | 82.9 (74.6–89.4) | 0.69 (0.63–0.74; <0.001) | 6.012 (0.646) | 0.456 |
| Readmission | 9 (3.4%) | 4.6 (2.7–7.7) | 66.7 (29.9–92.5) | 72.2 (66.3–77.7) | 0.75 (0.69–0.80; 0.005) | 6.518 (0.589) | 0.033 |
| Return to OR | 16 (6.1%) | 1.7 (1.2–2.1) | 50.0 (24.7–75.3) | 61.6 (55.2–67.8) | 0.56 (0.50–0.62; 0.393) | 3.305 (0.855) | 0.059 |
| Death | 13 (5.0%) | 0.8 (0.2–3.6) | 76.9 (46.2–95.0) | 70.2 (64.0–75.8) | 0.83 (0.78–0.88; <0.001) | 11.285 (0.127) | 0.043 |