Table 3.
Comparing false positive rates (FPR), false negative rates (FNR) and earliest time to signal using the Bayesian sequential method with a 95% credible interval as the signal criterion and the frequentist MaxSPRT method when the background rate is 6.35 per 1000 person-years.
| FPR | FNR | Earliest time to signal | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
||||||||
| Methods | Variance | RR=1 | RR=1.2 | RR=1.5 | RR=2 | RR=1.2 | RR=1.5 | RR=2 |
|
| ||||||||
| Bayesian | 0.1 | 0.061 | 0.564 | 0.029 | 0 | 5.688 | 4.111 | 2.038 |
| 0.5 | 0.088 | 0.493 | 0.024 | 0 | 4.943 | 3.450 | 1.675 | |
| 1.0 | 0.093 | 0.483 | 0.021 | 0 | 4.799 | 3.392 | 1.622 | |
| 2.0 | 0.101 | 0.479 | 0.020 | 0 | 4.747 | 3.339 | 1.595 | |
| 5.0 | 0.104 | 0.476 | 0.019 | 0 | 4.687 | 3.308 | 1.568 | |
| MaxSPRT | 0.016 | 0.789 | 0.134 | 0 | 6.095 | 4.857 | 2.206 | |
The unit for time is the number of analysis time points.